Zona de Azar USA – Bets on Donald Trump’s Victory Grow by 54.8%

United States.- July 3, 2024 www.zonadeazar.com Bets that Donald Trump will win the US presidential elections increased to 54.8%, according to data from RealClearPolitics (RCP). President Joe Biden’s chances fell to 19.2% after a poor performance in the first debate against the Republican.

Before the debate on CNN, Biden had a 35.7% chance of re-election, according to the RCP betting market average. However, after the event, these possibilities decreased drastically.

During the debate, Biden demonstrated fragility, hesitating and becoming confused at several points. He was unable to provide specific reflections on important topics such as immigration and health.

Biden’s performance in the debate worried the Democratic Party. Some bettors are more optimistic about the chances of other Democratic names becoming the party’s presidential candidates in 2024.

Gavin Newsom, governor of California, rose to 10.8% in bets, while Vice President Kamala Harris reached 4.5%, tripling compared to the predebate.

Trump x Biden and the electoral process in the US

Although he participates in pre-campaign debates, Joe Biden is not yet the official name of the party for the presidential elections. The Democratic National Convention, which will take place in August, will decide the name of the party’s official candidate.

Biden, having won the electoral primaries, has priority, although there is a possibility of replacement. In the United States, the presidential candidate needs to obtain support in all 50 states, facing a complex system of local preliminary elections.

Biden has already received this support to include his name on the November 5 ballot. Therefore, it would be difficult for the Democratic Party to change candidates at this point, since in addition to convincing Biden to leave the race, it would be necessary to recover state support for a new candidate.

A natural choice could be the current vice president, Kamala Harris, but voters consider her excessively left-wing and she is less popular than Biden.

In other words, Democrats have little time, a lot of uncertainty and no name clearly qualified to bet on a possible replacement for Biden in November.

Edited: @_fonta www.zonadeazar.com