Zona de Azar USA – AGA Predicts Record NFL Betting

USA.- September 9th 2021 www.zonadeazar.com In conjunction with Thursday’s kickoff of the NFL in a game between the Dallas Cowboys and defending Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the American Gaming Association is predicting that a record 18% of Americans, totaling 45.2 million people, plan to place a wager this season.

The AGA attributes the 36% increase over the 2020 season to the expansion of legal sports betting and increased enthusiasm for the upcoming season.

Fans had access to legal sports betting in 18 states and the District of Columbia at the start of the 2020 season. As the 2021 season gets under way, bettors can place wagers in 26 states and the District of Columbia for a market of 111 million, with five additional states likely to offer legal sports betting by the end of the season, according to the AGA. The count includes launches in Arizona, South Dakota, and Washington state in time for Thursday’s game.

Sports betting is currently legal in 32 states and Washington, D.C. Some 16 of the 23 states that host NFL teams have legalized sports betting. Before May 2018 when the Supreme Court stuck down a federal ban, only Nevada offered single-game wagers.

“It’s a validation of a lot of work that has gone into bringing legal regulated gaming to Americans who have wanted to bet on sports and have bet on sports for a long time,” said Casey Clark, a senior vice president for the AGA. “It’s an exciting time for sports fans and sports betting operators. A lot of new opportunities and markets are opening up, making this available to a lot more Americans.”

The betting is adding value to the NFL, with 37% of fans planning to wager on the season, including 47% of “self-described avid NFL fans,” according to AGA research. Some 44% of all Americans and 63% of NFL fans believe that in-venue sportsbooks will add entertainment value to attending sporting events in person, the survey said.

“With the defending Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers set to host the Dallas Cowboys on Thursday (along with the start of college games), this football-season kickoff marks the start of an important handful of months for sports betting operators,” said Barry Jonas, a director and senior equity analyst with Truist Securities. “Football is the U.S. population’s favorite sport to wager on and management teams have spoken for months through the off-season about the importance in demonstrating their books’ capabilities this fall and winter. We look forward to seeing monthly revenue reports trickle in this fall as well as to hearing operator commentary regarding early-season trends at third quarter earnings in late October and early November.”

In its own NFL sports betting report, Truist Securities said the move from 16 games last year to 17 this year will increase betting volumes.

“Though a marginal increase (+6% to total number of games), we note operators should be pleased with one additional week of betting volumes,” Truist said. “NFL fans are avid sports bettors and giving those fans the ability to bet on their favorite teams increases their level of engagement in the sport,” Clark said. “An extra week will add to the excitement.”

Sports betting is also getting a boost from the 52 data-sharing and marketing partnerships the NFL and its teams have formed since May 2018, analysts said.

A survey of 2,100 bettors across the country by Jefferies Equities Research showed professional football to be the most popular sporting event among sports bettors, with 58% including the NFL in their top three choices, followed by the distant-second NBA (33%) and college football (28%). In addition, about 74% of sports bettors have wagered on either NFL or college football in prior years.

“We endeavored to explore any change in wagering budget around football season, as sports betting is now live in more states,” said David Katz, a research analyst for Jefferies. “The results were somewhat surprising, as 39% of sports bettors indicated likelihood to spend the same amount, 35% indicated less, and only 27% indicated more.”

Jefferies noted that this will be the first NFL season with legal betting in Michigan, Tennessee, Virginia, Wyoming, Arizona, Connecticut, Louisiana, and Maryland, with the potential for New York and Florida. This will also be the first football season since DraftKings conversion to SBTech’s platform, the Caesars Entertainment and William Hill merger, Churchill Downs Twinspires rebranding, and Bally Bet and WynnBET’s participation.

Katz said their sports betting survey supports their view that DraftKings and FanDuel “remain best positioned for this football season, given first-mover advantage and superior technology.” Despite that, their survey suggests slight improvement across remaining brands, as large operators integrate vertically and roll out single app/single wallet functionality.

“In this regard, we believe BetMGM should have ranked higher, given the strong performance of late,” Katz said. “The coming months should be key for Caesars after its William Hill acquisition. Overall, we expect the football season to be profound for operators and productive for the entire group of stocks. We believe DraftKings, FanDuel, Entertain, and MGM are currently the best positioned. Caesars is in a relatively early stage, given the timing of the William Hill acquisition. Also, smaller and B2B players GAN, Gambling.com, and Rush Street Interactive should reflect well during the NFL season.”

In its report, Truist said that the football season is also critical to revenue generation for states. Last season from football alone, Truist estimated $560 million to $580 million of gross gaming revenue was generated on $7.7 billion to $8 billion of total handle.

“While many believe the start of football season can be a catalyst for related gaming stocks, we don’t think there’s been a clear pattern over the past few years,” according to Truist. “That said, shares did rise as football signified a return to normalcy before another winter COVID surge around a year ago. Interestingly, the most correlated positive momentum has been seen between the (college football) national Championship in January and the Super Bowl in February.”

In-game wagering should be a key driver of gross gaming revenue, but that remains in its formative stage with little change in their survey, Katz said. Several companies have begun rolling out micro-bet/in-game parlay features, believed to have higher hold rate/yield. While the survey results indicated low adoption, 59% of respondents indicated an increased budget for in-game, which is modestly higher than a March survey found, he said.

“We note that in-game wagering is still in its early stage, which is likely why only half of the sports bettors are interested in in-game wagering opportunities,” Katz said. Also, only 41% of respondents are likely to increase their budget by up to 25% because of in-game wagering, 15% are likely to increase by 26%-50%, and just 3% will increase the budget by over 50%. However, we also discovered that 65% of (online sports betting) users and 76% DFS are interested in in-game wagering.”

Katz said the pandemic impacted the sports calendar significantly and caused many people to be temporarily out of work. Some 45% of sports bettors indicated they have wagered less over the past 12 months, while only 19% have wagered more. For the next 12 months, Katz said only 25% of bettors plan to wager more, while 35% expect to wager less. The survey discovered, however, that 31% of online sports bettors and 35% of daily fantasy bettors are likely to wager more, slightly higher than the overall results.

The AGA’s research shows:

• 21.7 million American adults will bet on the 2021 NFL season casually with friends, up 31% from 2020.
• 19.5 million will place a bet online (legal and illegal), up 73% from 2020.
• 14.6 million will participate in a paid fantasy contest or other type of pool competition, up 69% from 2021.
• 10.5 million will place a bet at a physical sportsbook, up 58% from 2020.
• 6.7 million will place a bet with a bookie, up 13% from 2020.

Some 25% of Americans say they are more excited about the upcoming season than previous seasons, up from 18 last year. Fans from the Northeast (21%) are most interested in betting on the NFL this year, followed by the West (18%), Midwest (17%), and South (15%).
The Kansas City Chiefs are the most popular pick to win the Super Bowl (15%), followed by the Buccaneers (11%) and Cowboys (7%).

Edited by: @MaiaDigital www.zonadeazar.com