Political Betting in the U.S. Grows and Reignites Regulatory Debate
USA.-Â January 29, 2026 www.zonadeazar.com The rapid expansion of political prediction markets in the United States is driving millions of dollars in bets on government decisions and presidential actions, while raising increasing concerns over regulation, transparency, and the use of insider information.
Overview
Political prediction markets are experiencing a period of strong growth in the United States, with platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket concentrating hundreds of millions of dollars in wagers linked to government decisions, electoral processes, and the actions of President Donald Trump and his administration. This expansion has positioned these markets as a reference point not only for bettors but also for analysts seeking to anticipate political and economic scenarios.
Details / Context
Kalshi currently reports more than USD 129 million wagered across its political markets, while Polymarket exceeds USD 90 million in bets placed by approximately 370,000 users, despite lacking regulatory approval to operate within the U.S. market. Among the most popular betting topics are potential federal government shutdowns, key appointments, foreign policy decisions, and even the wording of presidential speeches.
The popularity of these platforms surged during the 2024 electoral cycle, when record betting volumes were registered on the presidential election, anticipating trends that later aligned with official results. At the same time, companies linked to the Trump ecosystem are advancing plans to launch new prediction markets focused on politics, economics, and sports.
Future outlook
The rapid growth of political betting has raised alarms among lawmakers and regulatory bodies. Recent legislative initiatives aim to prohibit government employees from participating in markets where they could exert direct influence or access material non-public information. Financial regulation experts have also warned of potential conflicts with existing laws governing derivatives and contracts tied to sensitive events.
As Kalshi strengthens its internal compliance mechanisms and cooperation with regulators, the limited oversight over foreign-based platforms points to an ongoing regulatory debate. With midterm elections approaching later this year, the sector is heading toward new activity records, increasing its impact at the intersection of politics, betting, and financial markets.
Edited by @pererarte   www.zonadeazar.com