IBJR Warns About Unauthorized Betting Through Prediction Markets
Brasil.- March 10, 2026 – www.zonadeazar.com The Brazilian Institute for Responsible Gaming (IBJR) has raised concerns about the potential development of prediction markets in Brazil, particularly those linked to capital markets structures, warning that such models may effectively function as betting products if consumers assume financial risk tied to uncertain sporting outcomes.
Overview
According to the IBJR, whenever a consumer takes on financial risk conditioned on the outcome of an uncertain sporting event, the activity should be considered a bet, regardless of the technology used, the commercial label applied or the contractual structure supporting the product.
The institute argues that presenting these models as technological innovation may obscure the legal and economic reality, without changing the underlying financial exposure faced by consumers.
Details / Context
The organization warns that allowing products equivalent to betting to operate outside the established regulatory framework opens the door to what it describes as regulatory arbitrage.
Such practices could generate several negative consequences for the market, including:
- Unfair competition with licensed betting operators
- Weakened consumer protection mechanisms
- Threats to sports integrity
- Loss of tax revenue for the State
IBJR emphasizes that Brazil recently implemented a regulatory framework for fixed-odds betting aimed at creating a transparent and secure market environment.
International Experience
The institute also highlighted that international experience supports the need for clear regulatory treatment of these products.
In the United Kingdom, similar products are clearly classified and regulated as betting activities.
Meanwhile, in the United States, regulators are strengthening oversight and enforcement mechanisms to prevent financial or technological structures from enabling betting activity outside the regulated system.
Future Outlook
According to the IBJR, replicating the same economic exposure of betting through alternative structures that avoid the same legal and fiscal obligations does not represent innovation, but rather an attempt to bypass regulation.
The institute advocates for a clear and consistent regulatory approach, ensuring equal treatment among operators, safeguarding consumer protection and preserving sports integrity.
In this context, IBJR stresses that innovation can coexist with regulation, while regulatory arbitrage seeks to avoid it, creating risks for the stability and credibility of the market.
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