Brazil’s SPA Warns Prediction Markets Are Not Authorized

🇬🇧 International iGaming – 11 March 2026 – www.zonadeazar.com Brazil’s Secretariat of Prizes and Betting (SPA), part of the Ministry of Finance, issued an official statement clarifying that no prediction market platforms are currently authorized to operate in Brazil.

The statement comes amid growing discussions about the expansion of prediction markets, platforms that allow users to trade contracts based on the outcome of future events.

Overview

According to the SPA, the Brazilian government is monitoring the development of these markets and evaluating their regulatory implications.

Authorities confirmed that the topic is currently under technical and regulatory analysis, including studies of how similar platforms operate in other jurisdictions.

The government also noted that any future regulatory decision will depend on the outcome of these evaluations and coordination with other regulatory bodies.

Details / Context

The statement was published shortly after the announcement of a partnership between financial services company XP and the prediction market platform Kalshi, which aims to expand the presence of this model in Brazil.

Prediction market platforms allow users to take financial positions on the outcome of future events, including elections, economic indicators or sports results.

Unlike traditional fixed-odds betting, users trade contracts tied to event outcomes, rather than placing wagers directly with a bookmaker.

Because of this structure, prediction markets sit at the intersection of financial trading and gambling-related mechanisms.

Industry Concerns

The rise of these platforms has raised concerns among Brazil’s regulated betting operators.

Licensed companies argue that platforms such as Kalshi or Polymarket could operate in Brazil without complying with the same regulatory requirements imposed on licensed sportsbooks.

Industry representatives warn that this could create regulatory asymmetry, potentially placing licensed operators at a competitive disadvantage.

Regulatory Perspective

In its statement, the SPA emphasised that authorities are analysing the issue carefully in order to avoid regulatory loopholes and ensure consistency with Brazil’s legal framework.

The evaluation is being conducted in coordination with other regulatory agencies, particularly the Brazilian Securities and Exchange Commission (CVM), which may have jurisdiction over financial aspects of these products.

The outcome of this process will determine whether prediction markets should be treated as financial instruments, investment products or betting-related activities.

Future Outlook

As Brazil continues to consolidate its regulated online betting market, the debate surrounding prediction markets highlights the growing convergence between financial technology, digital trading and wagering mechanisms.

The final regulatory approach adopted by Brazilian authorities could influence not only the local iGaming ecosystem but also the broader development of prediction markets across Latin America.

🔗 Edited by: @_fonta www.zonadeazar.com