Prediction Markets Point to Favorites for the 2026 Oscars

USA.- March 13, 2026 www.zonadeazar.com Betting platforms and prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi are already outlining a clear scenario of favoritism for the upcoming Academy Awards, which will take place this Sunday.

According to a survey conducted by Aposta Legal, the productions One Battle After Another and Sinners emerge as the leading contenders of the night, while K-Pop Warriors dominates the odds for both Best Original Song and Best Animated Feature.

Unlike traditional critic assessments, prediction markets aggregate the behavior of thousands of participants who allocate real money based on data analysis, industry trends, and precursor awards.

This form of “collective intelligence” often reflects the real scenario with high accuracy. In 2025, for instance, these platforms achieved 100% accuracy across the main award categories.

One of their notable forecasts included predicting that Anora would surpass the Brazilian film Still I’m Here, while also anticipating Brazil’s victory in the International Film category months before the ceremony.

For the 2026 edition, Polymarket projections show strong dominance for One Battle After Another, directed by Paul Thomas Anderson.

The film currently holds around an 80% probability of winning Best Picture.

In the Best Director category, Anderson leads with a striking 91% probability, a margin that bettors consider almost a guaranteed victory.

Meanwhile, the Brazilian film The Secret Agent, directed by Kleber Mendonça Filho, received four nominations.

However, in the Best Picture category, the film has less than a 1% chance according to betting markets.

In the Best International Film category, the Brazilian production represents 24% of betting volume, placing it second behind the French favorite Valor Sentimental, which holds 67% of market preference.

Despite acting as a highly efficient barometer of global entertainment outcomes, prediction markets still face regulatory challenges.

In Brazil, for instance, betting on cultural or political events through platforms like Polymarket still lacks clear regulation, restricting the practice within the country.

Editado: @MaiaDigital www.zonadeazar.com