Caixa Could See Its First Year Without Lottery Growth Since 2018
Brazil.– 14 November 2025 – www.zonadeazar.com A decline in lottery revenue raises concerns for one of Brazil’s most important public gaming sectors
Overview
Lottery revenue operated by Caixa Econômica Federal fell by 6% in the first half of 2025, totalling R$ 11.6 billion compared to R$ 12.3 billion in the same period of 2024. If this trend continues, 2025 may become the first year without growth since 2018, signaling a potential shift in the performance of Brazil’s official lottery segment.
The decline occurs at a time marked by digital expansion, new entertainment habits, and the rapid rise of Brazil’s newly regulated sports betting market.
Details / Context
For seven consecutive years, Caixa’s lottery products had recorded steady increases, bolstered by strong jackpots, digital channels, and a loyal player base. The negative performance in the first half of 2025 breaks this sequence and introduces uncertainty into a segment traditionally viewed as stable.
Achieving positive annual growth would require an unusually strong recovery in the second half of the year—around 23%—a scenario considered unlikely based on current indicators.
The downturn has also impacted the distribution of funds to social programs historically financed by lottery revenues, which saw an 8% reduction. These programs support sports initiatives, education, healthcare, and social welfare, making the performance of the lottery sector a matter of public relevance.
Analysts point to several contributing factors:
- Fewer large accumulated jackpots compared to 2024
- Stronger competition from digital gaming and regulated sports betting
- Shifting consumer behaviour, with players increasingly preferring fast-paced betting products
Subtopics
Competition from the regulated sports betting market
The launch of Brazil’s regulated sports betting industry in 2025 introduced a powerful new competitor for public lotteries. With licensed operators gaining visibility and offering continuous engagement, part of the player base has migrated to betting products that offer more frequent play cycles.
This shift may be reducing the appeal of traditional lottery products among younger, mobile-first audiences.
Prize structures and consumer reaction
Lottery performance is strongly influenced by the size and frequency of large jackpots. When fewer accumulations occur, casual players tend to participate less, diminishing overall sales volume. In 2025, the lower frequency of highly attractive jackpots weakened this historical driver of demand.
Institutional challenges and the need for modernization
As the state entity responsible for national lotteries, Caixa faces the challenge of modernizing its product mix and digital presence. The decline observed this year raises strategic questions:
- How to compete with real-time digital betting experiences
- How to attract new generations of players
- How to stabilize social fund allocations despite market fluctuations
These considerations indicate that Caixa may need to accelerate innovation, adopt new engagement strategies, and update its positioning within a rapidly evolving gambling landscape.
Future outlook
If 2025 ends without growth, it will mark a turning point for Brazil’s official lottery ecosystem. The trend suggests the sector must expand its digital offering, increase promotional impact, and explore products more aligned with contemporary player expectations.
The performance in the second half of the year will be decisive in determining whether the decline is temporary or signals a structural shift in the behaviour of Brazilian lottery players. One thing is clear: the future of the public lottery model will require a more competitive, adaptive, and innovative approach.
🔗 Edited by: @_fonta www.zonadeazar.com