Lula Plans To Raise Betting Tax Rate To 18%–24% Ahead Of 2026

Brazil.– October 14, 2025 – www.zonadeazar.com The Brazilian government considers increasing the tax on betting and iGaming to boost fiscal revenues and strengthen Lula’s political positioning ahead of next year’s elections.

Overview

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has reignited the debate over betting taxation by proposing a rise in the Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR) tax from 12 % to between 18 % and 24 %.
The move is part of a broader fiscal realignment strategy aimed at increasing public revenues and financing social programs while consolidating political support before the 2026 elections.

Details / Context

According to government insiders, the proposal is being prepared by the Finance Ministry in collaboration with the Secretariat of Prizes and Betting (SPA).
The government argues that a higher rate is necessary to ensure a fair contribution from the fast-growing betting sector, but industry stakeholders warn that excessive taxation could drive consumers toward unlicensed operators.

Brazil’s current framework includes a 12 % GGR tax, a 15 % withholding tax on player winnings above R$ 2,112, plus contributions of 2 % to sports and 1 % to responsible gaming.
The proposed increase would push the effective burden beyond 40 % of gross revenue, placing Brazil among the highest-taxed gaming jurisdictions globally.

Key Aspects

Political Context:
Analysts see the move as part of Lula’s electoral narrative to ensure that “big betting companies pay their fair share”, reinforcing his image of fiscal justice.

Industry Reaction:
Operators and trade associations argue that higher rates could stifle investment, limit innovation, and slow the growth of the legal market.

International Comparison:
In mature markets such as the UK and Spain, GGR taxes range from 15 % to 21 %, offering a benchmark for competitiveness that Brazil risks exceeding.

Future Outlook

The measure is expected to be debated in Congress later this year and incorporated into the 2026 federal budget proposal.
If approved, the new rate would be implemented gradually, with compensatory measures for licensed operators.

The outcome will define the next phase of Brazil’s regulated betting framework and test the balance between social responsibility, fiscal ambition, and market sustainability.

🔗 Edited by: @_fonta www.zonadeazar.com