Bradesco BBI Forecasts Further Growth for Brazil’s Online Betting Market
Brazil.- 10 September 2026 | www.zonadeazar.com Brazil‘s online sports betting market still has significant room for expansion and is expected to maintain double-digit growth rates over the coming years, according to analysis from Bradesco BBI.
The investment bank believes Brazil remains some distance from market saturation, despite the strong expansion recorded following the introduction of its regulated online betting framework.
Growth is expected to be supported mainly by relatively low user penetration, the impact of regulation and Brazil‘s high level of digital adoption.
GGR Reached $17 Billion in 2025
Bradesco BBI estimates that Brazilian gross gaming revenue increased by 33% during 2025.
Total GGR reached approximately $17 billion.
Before implementation of the regulated online market, the bank had estimated Brazil‘s GGR at approximately $13 billion.
The subsequent increase illustrates the scale of expansion that followed the formalisation of digital betting.
11% Growth Forecast for 2026
Bradesco BBI expects growth to moderate during 2026.
The bank forecasts an increase of approximately 11%, taking Brazilian GGR to around $20 billion.
Although this represents a significant slowdown from the 33% expansion recorded in 2025, the bank believes double-digit annual growth could continue in subsequent years.
Brazil Remains Far from Saturation
One of the central arguments supporting this forecast is the comparatively limited penetration of betting services among Brazilian adults.
Approximately 22% of adults currently use betting platforms.
This means slightly more than one in five adults participates in the market.
For Bradesco BBI, that penetration level leaves significant structural headroom before saturation becomes a major constraint.
Three Drivers of Growth
The analysis identifies three principal factors supporting continued expansion.
The first is Brazil‘s relatively small current betting user base.
The second is regulation, which came into effect at the beginning of 2025 and helped formalise the sector and increase confidence in the market.
The third is Brazil‘s strong level of digital adoption, providing infrastructure and consumer behaviour that support continued online growth.
Regulation as a Catalyst
The introduction of Brazil‘s regulated betting framework significantly changed the structure of the industry.
Since January 2025, businesses meeting federal requirements have been able to operate fixed-odds betting within a formal licensing environment.
Bradesco BBI views regulation as a catalyst that increased both market formalisation and consumer confidence.
Digital Adoption Supports Expansion
Brazil‘s widespread use of digital services represents another structural advantage.
The growth of e-commerce, digital payments and mobile platforms has created an environment well suited to online betting.
Operators can reach a substantial consumer base entirely through digital channels.
Betting Equals 3.4% of Net Retail Sales
The sector has already reached meaningful scale when compared with other areas of consumer spending.
Betting volumes are equivalent to around 3.4% of Brazilian net retail sales.
That figure stood at 2.7% in 2023.
Bradesco BBI expects it to rise to approximately 3.5% during 2026.
Online Betting Equals 12.3% of E-Commerce
The comparison becomes even more striking when measured against online retail.
Online betting revenue is now equivalent to approximately 12.3% of Brazil‘s e-commerce market.
That share has increased sharply from 8.3% in 2023.
The figures illustrate how rapidly betting has gained economic weight within Brazil‘s digital economy.
Consumer Companies Highlight Betting Pressure
The rapid expansion has generated debate over the impact betting may have on other areas of consumer spending.
Companies including:
- Lojas Renner.
- Magazine Luiza.
- Casas Bahia.
- Assaí.
- GPA.
- Arcos Dorados.
- SmartFit.
have cited the growth of betting as one factor potentially placing pressure on discretionary spending.
The argument is that money previously spent on other goods or services may increasingly be directed towards betting platforms.
Bradesco BBI Sees Limited Macroeconomic Impact
The bank’s analysis distinguishes between pressure on individual areas of discretionary consumption and a broader macroeconomic problem.
Bradesco BBI currently considers betting-related indebtedness a marginal portfolio and financial-behaviour risk.
The sector is large enough to affect certain categories of discretionary spending, but not yet sufficiently large to materially affect Brazilian consumers as a whole.
Household Debt Remains a Risk
However, the analysis warns that conditions could deteriorate.
Approximately 82% of Brazilian households currently carry some form of debt.
Almost 30% of household budgets are committed to debt repayments.
Further deterioration in household finances could directly reduce the discretionary income available for consumption, including betting.
R$122 Monthly Net Spend
Average net spending among consumers using online betting platforms stands at approximately R$122 per month.
That is equivalent to around 7.5% of Brazil‘s 2026 minimum wage.
The figure provides an indication of the role betting may play within the monthly budgets of active users.
Spending Could Reach 15% of the Minimum Wage
The proportion rises when other forms of gambling are included.
When jogo do bicho and unregulated platforms are considered alongside regulated online betting, the figure can reach approximately 15% of the minimum wage.
The analysis estimates that jogo do bicho and unregulated platforms each account for around 19% of Brazil‘s total GGR.
Illegal Market Remains Significant
These estimates indicate that implementation of federal regulation has not immediately eliminated gambling activity outside the authorised market.
Unregulated platforms continue to account for a meaningful share of activity.
Moving more users from illegal or unregulated offerings into the licensed ecosystem therefore remains an important challenge.
68% of Bettors Are Male
The analysis also provides insight into the demographic profile of Brazilian bettors.
Approximately 68% are male.
Almost half of this group is aged 30 or younger.
The market therefore displays a significant concentration among younger male consumers.
One in Four Uses Four or More Platforms
Player behaviour also varies significantly according to activity levels.
Approximately 25% of bettors use four or more platforms.
In contrast, 48% use only one betting website.
This indicates the presence of a smaller but particularly active group of consumers maintaining accounts across multiple operators.
Active Minority May Concentrate Spending
The presence of players using four or more platforms suggests that market activity is not distributed evenly.
While almost half of users concentrate their betting with one operator, a quarter are active across several.
This highly engaged segment may account for a substantial share of overall sector spending and activity.
Growth and Responsible Gambling
The projected expansion also creates additional challenges around consumer protection and responsible gambling.
As market penetration increases, operators and regulators will need to accompany growth with effective monitoring, identification of problematic behaviour and measures designed to limit financial harm.
Brazil‘s existing level of household indebtedness makes this an important area to monitor.
Competition for Discretionary Spending
The debate surrounding betting also reflects broader competition for disposable consumer income.
Gaming, online retail, entertainment, restaurants, fitness and traditional retail all compete within the discretionary spending economy.
Rapid growth in a highly digital category can change how consumers distribute those resources.
Industry Context
Brazil entered a new phase for fixed-odds betting in 2025 with implementation of its regulated federal framework.
The country combines a large population, widespread smartphone use and strong adoption of digital payments and online services.
These conditions have made Brazil one of the most strategically important markets for international gaming operators and suppliers.
At the same time, regulation continues to face challenges relating to illegal operators, financial protection, advertising and the sustainability of market growth.
Next Steps and Impact
Bradesco BBI expects Brazilian GGR to reach approximately $20 billion in 2026, following $17 billion in 2025.
The projected 11% increase represents a slowdown, but does not alter the bank’s broader view that Brazil can continue delivering double-digit growth over the coming years.
With only 22% adult penetration, recent regulation and strong digital adoption, the structural conditions for further expansion remain in place.
The key question will be how far that growth can continue while consumer debt, competition for discretionary spending and efforts to reduce the illegal market become increasingly important factors.
Editó: @fonta
