Kalshi and Polymarket: New Data From US Prediction Markets
United States.- 15 October 2026 | www.zonadeazar.com Prediction markets in the United States continue generating data on political, economic and sporting events through contracts traded on platforms including Kalshi and Polymarket.
According to a DeFi Rate snapshot from 14 October 2026, at 7:02 am ET, event contracts reflected market expectations concerning control of the US Congress, Federal Reserve monetary policy and the upcoming Super Bowl.
The report compares prices across different platforms, using averages and contract-specific methodologies to calculate market-implied probabilities.
Congressional Elections: Senate and House Control
One of the principal categories examined concerns the November 2026 US congressional elections.
According to the contracts analysed by DeFi Rate:
- Democratic control of the Senate: 62.4% implied probability.
- Democratic control of the House of Representatives: 90.3%.
- Republican control of both chambers: approximately 9.5%.
The Senate indicator combines information from Kalshi and Polymarket.
Kalshi showed a constructed probability of 61.3%, while Polymarket recorded 63.5%.
For the House of Representatives, both platforms displayed similar contract prices, close to 90%.
These figures represent market prices rather than confirmed election results or official forecasts.
State-Level Senate Markets: Alaska and Michigan
The report also includes contracts linked to individual Senate elections.
Among the featured markets were:
- Alaska: 73.5% implied probability for the Democratic candidate.
- Michigan: 67.5% for the Democratic candidate.
Both indicators were derived exclusively from contracts traded on Kalshi.
The methodology uses the midpoint between available bid and ask prices.
The figures illustrate how specific electoral outcomes are priced within one trading platform, although they should not be interpreted as measures of voter intention.
Federal Reserve: 20% Implied Chance of a Rate Increase
Contracts linked to monetary policy represent another important prediction market category.
According to DeFi Rate, the market-implied probability of the Federal Reserve increasing interest rates by 25 basis points at its 27–28 October meeting stood at approximately 20%.
The underlying prices were:
- Kalshi: 18.5%.
- Polymarket: 20.5%.
- Average: 19.5%.
A separate Kalshi contract based on the resulting interest rate level showed a probability of 20.5%.
The differences illustrate why settlement conditions must be considered when comparing contracts linked to similar economic events.
Super Bowl LXI: San Francisco Among Featured Teams
Sport represents another significant category covered by the snapshot.
DeFi Rate compared contracts relating to Super Bowl LXI, scheduled for February 2027.
The featured teams included:
- San Francisco 49ers: 12.9% implied probability.
- Buffalo Bills: 11.2%.
- Baltimore Ravens: 8.3%.
The figures combine prices from Kalshi, Polymarket and Polymarket US.
For San Francisco, the respective platforms showed probabilities of 13%, 12.05% and 13.5%.
These quotations reflect market-implied probabilities for the selected teams and do not represent a complete ranking of all NFL contenders.
The 2028 Presidential Election
The report also examines contracts linked to longer-term political events.
For the 2028 US presidential election, DeFi Rate recorded:
- A Democratic presidential victory: 61% implied probability.
- JD Vance securing the Republican nomination: 45.5%.
The first figure combines a 58.5% price on Kalshi with 63.5% on Polymarket.
However, DeFi Rate identified one of the presidential contract quotations as stale at the time of the snapshot.
The figures should therefore be interpreted in light of contract settlement rules and the age of the underlying market data.
How Implied Probabilities Are Calculated
DeFi Rate aggregates data from prediction market platforms to facilitate comparisons.
Its methodology primarily uses two pricing mechanisms:
- Bid-ask midpoint: the average of the available buying and selling prices.
- Last traded price: the value recorded in the most recent transaction.
Where comparable contracts are available across platforms, the service calculates averages of their implied probabilities.
Differences may arise because of liquidity, settlement conditions and trading frequency.
Furthermore, market-implied probabilities do not guarantee that any particular event will occur.
Prediction Markets and Product Diversification
The snapshot demonstrates the range of events currently covered by prediction market contracts.
Trading opportunities include elections, monetary policy decisions, sporting competitions and other future outcomes.
This diversification enables platforms to develop products for participants with different interests.
In particular, the presence of Kalshi, Polymarket and Polymarket US in sports-related contracts highlights the sector’s expansion beyond traditional political and economic markets.
Comparing different platforms also makes it possible to identify pricing differences across similar event contracts.
Next Steps and Impact
DeFi Rate’s snapshot provides a reference for US prediction market activity on the morning of 14 October 2026.
Key readings included approximately 62% implied probability for Democratic Senate control, 90% for the House of Representatives and 20% for a Federal Reserve interest rate increase in October.
Within sports markets, the report compared Super Bowl LXI contracts involving the San Francisco 49ers, Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens.
These prices will continue changing as market participants trade and new information becomes available.
For the iGaming industry, prediction markets represent an important developing segment combining financial technology, sporting event contracts and market-based pricing systems.
Monitoring these indicators provides insight into platform activity, while maintaining a distinction between expectations reflected in traded contracts and actual event outcomes.
Editó: @fonta
