GKL Warns MGM Osaka Could Reduce Its Revenue by Up to 10%
South Korea.- 16 October 2026 | www.zonadeazar.com Grand Korea Leisure (GKL), the South Korean operator of foreigner-only casinos, has warned that the opening of MGM Osaka, scheduled for 2030 in Japan, could result in a temporary decline of between 5% and 10% in its total revenue.
The estimate was presented by Yoon Doo-hyun, President of GKL, during a hearing before South Korea’s National Assembly Culture, Sports and Tourism Committee on 14 October 2026.
Yoon explained that competition from the new Japanese integrated resort could particularly affect visitors from Japan, with revenue generated by Japanese customers potentially falling by approximately 25%.
The comments highlight growing concern within South Korea’s casino industry over the future expansion of Japan’s gambling market.
MGM Osaka Could Attract 20 Million Annual Visitors
The MGM Osaka project represents one of Japan’s most significant tourism and entertainment developments.
According to projections cited by GKL’s President, the resort could generate:
- 20 million visitors annually.
- KRW 4.7 trillion in annual revenue, equivalent to approximately US$3.5 billion.
- Scheduled opening: 2030.
These estimates illustrate the project’s commercial scale and its potential to attract international visitors.
The introduction of casino gaming within a major integrated resort could alter tourism and entertainment patterns across East Asia.
For South Korea, the principal concern is that some international visitors who currently use its casinos may redirect their spending towards Japan.
Japanese Customers Represent a Strategic Risk
GKL believes Japanese visitors are among the customer segments most exposed to future competition from Osaka.
During his parliamentary appearance, Yoon Doo-hyun explained that revenue from these customers could temporarily decline by approximately 25%.
Such a reduction would be significant for South Korean casinos targeting international tourism.
MGM Osaka would allow some Japanese consumers to access casino entertainment within their home country.
This could reduce gambling-related travel to South Korea.
However, the figures are forecasts rather than revenue losses that have already occurred.
GKL to Prepare Measures Against Competition
Responding to questions from lawmakers, GKL’s President confirmed that the company would prepare and submit specific measures to address the emerging competitive environment.
The operator will need to assess how to retain existing customers and reduce dependence on particular international markets.
Diversification of customer acquisition markets is among the strategies currently being considered.
The objective is to strengthen GKL’s ability to attract international visitors ahead of MGM Osaka’s opening.
However, the company has not yet announced definitive measures or specific commercial targets to offset the potential revenue losses.
Taiwan, Thailand and Mongolia Under Consideration
During the parliamentary hearing, Im Oh-kyeong, a Democratic Party lawmaker, highlighted GKL’s consideration of additional customer acquisition markets.
The destinations mentioned included:
- Taiwan.
- Thailand.
- Mongolia.
Geographical diversification could help reduce the company’s reliance on Japanese customers.
However, Im criticised the absence of specific customer acquisition targets for individual markets.
She also called for a clearer strategy to compensate for potential revenue declines.
The discussion highlighted the need to translate preliminary commercial assessments into actionable plans.
Study Projects Industry Losses Exceeding KRW 1 Trillion
Concerns extend beyond Grand Korea Leisure.
On 14 October, the Korea Casino Association held a seminar in Seoul examining the potential impact of Japan’s casino industry.
During the event, Lee Choong-ki, a professor at Kyung Hee University, presented research assessing the economic consequences of Japanese casino development.
The study estimated that annual revenue across South Korea’s foreigner-only casinos could decline by:
- KRW 800 billion, approximately US$596 million.
- More than KRW 1 trillion, equivalent to around US$745 million.
These amounts represent potential industry-wide impact scenarios rather than recorded losses or official GKL financial forecasts.
Up to 420,000 Fewer Casino Customers
The same study examined the potential impact on customer numbers across South Korea’s casino sector.
According to the findings, Japanese competition could result in an annual reduction of 360,000 to 420,000 customers at foreigner-only casinos.
The research updated an earlier study conducted in 2018.
The revised estimates drew upon surveys involving:
- South Korean outbound travellers.
- Kangwon Land customers.
- Visitors to foreigner-only casinos.
The findings suggest the opening of Japan’s casino market could produce significant changes in regional tourism flows related to gambling.
Kangwon Land Could Also Face Competition
The study presented in Seoul also included projections concerning Kangwon Land, South Korea’s principal casino permitted to serve domestic customers.
Researchers estimated that some customer spending could shift towards Osaka.
Two scenarios were presented.
Conservative scenario
An estimated annual shift in casino expenditure of approximately KRW 300 billion, equivalent to US$223 million.
Higher-impact scenario
A potential shift of up to KRW 1.27 trillion, approximately US$946 million.
These figures do not represent confirmed financial losses for Kangwon Land. They are projections of how customer expenditure could be redirected.
The research suggests that MGM Osaka’s potential influence may extend beyond casinos exclusively serving international visitors.
Seven Luck Casinos Face New Regional Competition
GKL operates three casinos under the Seven Luck brand, located in Seoul and Busan.
The company specialises in providing casino services to international visitors.
Its business model depends partly on South Korea’s ability to attract tourists interested in gaming and entertainment.
MGM Osaka could change this environment by introducing a major new competitor in the region.
GKL will need to assess both customer retention strategies and opportunities to attract visitors from additional international markets.
GKL Reports Growth in September
The warnings about the industry’s future come amid recent improvements in GKL’s operating performance.
During September 2026, the company reported:
- Casino revenue: KRW 37.28 billion, approximately US$27.7 million.
- Year-on-year growth: 7.2%.
- Month-on-month increase: 19.8%.
- Casino drop: KRW 323.72 billion.
For the first nine months of 2026, casino sales reached KRW 337.24 billion, representing 5.8% annual growth.
The results demonstrate positive short-term commercial performance.
Nevertheless, the projections associated with Osaka raise questions about the sustainability of future growth after 2030.
Potential Increase in Tourism Fund Contributions
Alongside international competition, South Korean casino operators face another potential challenge.
In July, the Ministry of Culture, Sports and Tourism outlined a proposal to increase the upper ceiling on tourism fund contributions.
The measure would raise the maximum rate from 10% to 15%.
According to the authorities, the higher rate would apply to a new upper revenue bracket.
The relevant thresholds and applicable rates would be determined through amendments to the enforcement decree.
During the parliamentary hearing, Im Oh-kyeong warned that the proposed increase could place additional pressure on casino operators’ profitability.
The concern is that companies may face higher financial obligations at the same time as stronger international competition.
The increase remains a proposal and does not represent a final change to applicable contribution rates.
Next Steps and Impact
Grand Korea Leisure’s warning highlights the strategic importance of MGM Osaka’s expected opening in 2030 for the regional casino industry.
GKL estimates that the resort could temporarily reduce its total revenue by 5% to 10%, with a potential 25% decline in revenue from Japanese customers.
Industry research suggests a potentially larger impact across South Korean casinos, with projected annual revenue losses exceeding KRW 1 trillion.
GKL will now need to develop specific measures to strengthen competitiveness and expand into additional customer acquisition markets.
The development of MGM Osaka, international tourism strategies and potential taxation changes will be important factors shaping the sector’s future.
For the Asian gaming industry, MGM Osaka represents a significant tourism development opportunity for Japan, while also creating a competitive challenge for established casino operators in South Korea.
Editó: @fonta
