Bitcoin: Polymarket and Kalshi Contracts Record US$15.9 Million in Volume
United States.- 30 October 2026 | www.zonadeazar.com Prediction markets tracking the price of Bitcoin (BTC) recorded significant trading activity on 29 October 2026, with approximately US$15.9 million in reported volume across contracts aggregated by the analytics platform The Prediction Markets.
The tracker brings together information from Polymarket and Kalshi, two major US prediction market platforms, enabling users to examine the implied probabilities of Bitcoin exceeding specific price thresholds.
Among Polymarket’s contracts, the US$80,000 threshold attracted particular attention, with a 45% implied probability in one of the updates recorded on 29 October.
Bitcoin and Prediction Markets
The markets allow participants to trade contracts linked to whether Bitcoin will exceed particular price levels on a specified date.
On Polymarket, traders can take positions across several thresholds, ranging from US$72,000 to US$92,000.
Each contract’s price reflects aggregated market expectations, although it does not guarantee the eventual outcome.
Implied probabilities change as new trades occur and the underlying cryptocurrency price moves.
US$80,000 Becomes a Key Price Threshold
According to a 29 October update from The Prediction Markets, Polymarket’s implied probabilities were:
- Bitcoin above US$72,000: 99.9%.
- Above US$74,000: 99.7%.
- Above US$76,000: 99.1%.
- Above US$78,000: 94.6%.
- Above US$80,000: 45%.
- Above US$82,000: 3.1%.
- Above US$84,000: 0.8%.
These figures represent a market snapshot and may change before settlement.
The difference between the US$78,000 and US$82,000 thresholds indicates that market expectations were concentrated within this price range.
Kalshi and Polymarket Offer Different Contracts
The Prediction Markets monitors contracts from both platforms, although their products are not necessarily equivalent.
While Polymarket lists several Bitcoin price thresholds for 29 October, Kalshi offers contracts with different settlement conditions and expiry dates.
Kalshi contracts displayed in the tracker include:
- Bitcoin above US$200,000: 1% implied probability in the observed update.
- Bitcoin above US$250,000: 1% implied probability.
These products should not be directly compared with Polymarket’s daily contracts because their timeframes and settlement conditions may differ.
The analytics platform notes that no fully matched outcomes have been identified between the two venues for this market group.
Combined Trading Volume Reaches US$15.9 Million
The Prediction Markets reports approximately US$15.9 million in combined trading volume across the monitored contracts.
The reported distribution includes:
- Kalshi: approximately US$15.3 million.
- Polymarket: around US$585,000.
Most of the recorded activity relates to Kalshi contracts with different thresholds and settlement conditions from Polymarket’s daily markets.
Consequently, the aggregated volume represents activity across the collected products rather than exclusively trades concerning Bitcoin’s price on 29 October.
Binance Provides Polymarket’s Price Reference
Polymarket’s daily contracts use Bitcoin’s price against Tether, identified as BTC/USDT, on Binance.
According to the published settlement rules, the outcome is determined using the closing price of the one-minute candle at 12:00 noon Eastern Time on 29 October.
For a contract to settle as Yes, the recorded price must be strictly above the specified threshold.
This approach establishes a predefined reference for determining the result.
Kalshi contracts may use different price benchmarks and settlement mechanisms.
Price Differences and Settlement Conditions
The Prediction Markets allows users to examine bid and ask prices, implied probabilities and contract specifications.
However, the platform cautions that contracts covering similar topics do not necessarily share identical rules.
Potential differences include:
- Expiry dates.
- Reference price indices.
- Settlement criteria.
- Available liquidity.
- Trading fees and executable prices.
These factors are particularly important when analysing cryptocurrency contracts, where prices can fluctuate significantly over short periods.
Growing Interest in Cryptocurrency Prediction Markets
Bitcoin-related contracts form part of the broader expansion of financial prediction markets.
These platforms allow participants to trade outcomes linked to digital asset prices, economic decisions and other verifiable events.
Comparison services such as The Prediction Markets make it easier to monitor different venues through a single interface.
Nevertheless, traded probabilities represent market expectations rather than guarantees or reliable predictions of Bitcoin’s future performance.
Industry Impact and Outlook
The figures recorded on 29 October reflect significant interest in Bitcoin’s price movements around US$80,000.
The tracker shows high implied probabilities for lower thresholds and a sharp decline for prices exceeding US$82,000.
It also highlights the importance of distinguishing between Kalshi and Polymarket products when their settlement conditions differ.
With approximately US$15.9 million traded across the collected contracts, Bitcoin prediction markets demonstrate substantial activity, while the US$80,000 threshold emerges as a key reference point for Polymarket’s 29 October 2026 contracts.
Edited by: @fonta
