Brazil Could Lose R$18 Billion in Social Funding Following Betting Ban
Brazil.- 21 October 2026 | www.zonadeazar.com Brazil’s prohibition of sports betting and online casinos could result in the loss of up to R$18 billion in transfers to public bodies and federal funds by December 2029.
The estimate comes from a study by BNLData, based on National Treasury information obtained through Brazil’s Freedom of Information legislation.
The analysis examines the fiscal consequences of Provisional Measure No. 1,394/2026, published on 25 September, which brought operations in the country’s regulated betting market to an end.
Two Scenarios for Revenue Losses
According to the study, Brazil’s regulated betting industry generated R$6.64 billion in contributions allocated to beneficiaries established under gambling legislation during its first 17 months of effective revenue collection.
The analysis identifies two possible scenarios:
- R$16.1 billion: projected losses between October 2026 and December 2029, assuming the average collection rate remained unchanged.
- R$18 billion: estimated losses when incorporating the contribution rates already scheduled for 2027 and 2028.
The projections cover the remaining period of operators’ authorisations, which had been due to expire in December 2029.
Sport, Tourism and Public Security Among Affected Sectors
The financial consequences could directly affect programmes supported by contributions from licensed betting operators.
During the first half of 2026, the sector generated R$2.48 billion in net revenue available for statutory distribution.
Key beneficiaries included:
- Sport: received R$427 million during the first half of 2026.
- Public security: received R$341 million during the same period, including funding for the Federal Police.
- Tourism: also benefits from contributions allocated under the betting legislation.
Additionally, Brazil’s National Public Security Fund received R$503.7 million from regulated betting activities in 2025.
The interruption of these transfers could affect public programmes that had begun relying partly on funding from the regulated industry.
Additional Federal Tax Revenue at Stake
The study emphasises that its projections cover only contributions distributed to beneficiaries established under betting legislation.
They do not include other federal taxes paid by operators or income tax on players’ winnings.
According to Brazil’s Federal Revenue Service, betting operators contributed R$9.95 billion in federal taxes during 2025, including corporate income tax, social contributions and payroll-related charges.
During the first eight months of 2026, federal tax revenue associated with the industry reached R$9.91 billion, representing a 69.25% year-on-year increase.
Impact and Next Steps
BNLData notes that its estimates do not account for potential market growth through 2029 or revenue from regulatory supervision fees.
Consequently, the figures represent projections based on previous collection patterns, rather than a definitive calculation of the ban’s fiscal impact.
The study adds another dimension to the debate surrounding Brazil’s betting prohibition by highlighting potential consequences for the funding of sport, tourism and public security.
Future regulatory developments will be decisive in determining the actual impact on public revenues allocated to social programmes.
Editó: @fonta
