Brazil: Quaest Examines Betting Ban’s Role in Presidential Election

Brazil.- 22 October 2026 | www.zonadeazar.com Quaest published a new Brazilian presidential election poll on 21 October, incorporating questions about the measures introduced by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s Government against online betting platforms.

The survey also examines voter preferences following the televised debate between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, held on 18 October by broadcaster Band.

The research includes restrictions targeting betting platforms, commonly known as bets in Brazil, among the issues that may have influenced voters’ decisions.

Presidential Poll Results

The latest Quaest survey reports the following voting intentions:

  • Flávio Bolsonaro (PL): 45%.
  • Lula da Silva (PT): 44%.
  • Blank or invalid votes: 9%.
  • Undecided voters: 2%.

The one-percentage-point difference falls within the survey’s margin of error, meaning the candidates are statistically tied.

Compared with the previous poll, published on 14 October, Bolsonaro’s figure moved from 46% to 45%, while Lula remained at 44%.

Betting Restrictions Enter the Electoral Debate

One development of particular relevance to the iGaming industry is the inclusion of online betting restrictions in the electoral questionnaire.

Quaest asked respondents about six issues that may have influenced their voting decisions during the first round.

These included:

  • Government measures targeting online betting.
  • An increase in Bolsa Família benefits.
  • A proposal to abolish the six-day working week.
  • Allegations involving Banco Master.
  • Accusations concerning members of the Supreme Federal Court.
  • A controversy involving Nossa Senhora Aparecida.

Including betting restrictions allows researchers to examine their place within Brazil’s political debate.

The published information does not establish what percentage of voters changed their preference specifically because of the online betting prohibition.

Methodology and Political Context

The survey was conducted between 17 and 20 October 2026, involving 2,154 face-to-face interviews with voters aged 16 and over.

It carries a margin of error of two percentage points and a 95% confidence level.

The research is registered with Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court under reference BR-08535/2026.

The fieldwork covered days both before and after the presidential debate, meaning the results cannot be attributed exclusively to that event.

Next Steps and Industry Impact

Brazil’s presidential run-off election is scheduled for 25 October 2026.

Additional polling from Quaest and Datafolha is expected before election day, providing further information about changes in voting intentions.

For Brazil’s iGaming industry, the inclusion of betting restrictions in the survey demonstrates the sector’s presence in the country’s political and social debate.

The future of online gambling restrictions will continue to depend on regulatory, legislative and judicial decisions, regardless of polling results.

Editó: @fonta

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