Catena Media Cuts 2026 Guidance as Quarterly Revenue Falls 29%

Malta.- 20 October 2026 | www.zonadeazar.com Catena Media, the iGaming affiliate marketing company, has revised its financial targets for 2026 following weaker-than-expected performance during the third quarter.

According to preliminary figures released on 16 October, quarterly revenue reached €8.3 million, representing a 29% year-on-year decline from €11.6 million in the corresponding period of 2025.

The Malta-headquartered group confirmed that it no longer expects to achieve its target of double-digit organic growth in revenue and adjusted EBITDA for 2026.

Financial Performance and Asset Impairment

The preliminary results highlight the challenges affecting the business:

  • Third-quarter revenue: €8.3 million, down 29%.
  • Quarterly adjusted EBITDA: €0.7 million, compared with €2.9 million in 2025.
  • Revenue for the first nine months: €30.1 million, compared with €31 million.
  • Nine-month adjusted EBITDA: €4.6 million, down from €5.2 million.

Catena Media also expects to recognise a non-cash impairment charge of between €30 million and €35 million relating to intangible assets.

Quarterly adjusted EBITDA includes a €0.7 million reversal of provisions previously recorded for the company’s employee bonus programme.

Artificial Intelligence Reshapes Online Traffic

One of the main challenges affecting Catena Media is the transformation of online search through generative artificial intelligence.

The company explained that AI-assisted search and personalised results are changing how customers discover gambling brands, reducing traffic to traditional affiliate websites.

Changes in search engine rankings and lower marketing expenditure by certain operators during the summer also affected performance.

Catena Media acquires more than 90% of new customers through cost-per-acquisition (CPA) agreements, leaving it with limited recurring revenue to offset these pressures.

TraffiqX and Prediction Markets Support Diversification

Manuel Stan, CEO of Catena Media, acknowledged the disappointing quarterly results and emphasised the importance of adapting to structural changes in digital customer acquisition.

The company is pursuing three strategic priorities:

  • TraffiqX: a new platform scheduled for launch in the first quarter of 2027.
  • Prediction markets: expansion into emerging event-based trading verticals.
  • Customer loyalty: strengthening established brands and investing in retention programmes.

These initiatives are designed to diversify revenue streams and reduce the group’s dependence on traditional search traffic.

Next Steps and Impact

Catena Media will publish its complete third-quarter financial report on 10 November 2026.

Until then, the reported results remain preliminary and unaudited.

The revised guidance highlights a broader challenge facing the iGaming affiliate sector: adapting business models to changes in search technology and digital customer acquisition.

Through TraffiqX and prediction markets, Catena Media aims to develop additional commercial opportunities and strengthen its competitive position in 2027.

Editó: @fonta

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