DeFi Rate Compares Prices and Trading Volumes Across Prediction Markets
United States.- 14 October 2026 | www.zonadeazar.com Analytics platform DeFi Rate has published an update to its prediction market monitoring system, enabling users to compare prices, implied probabilities and trading volumes across Kalshi, Polymarket, Polymarket US and Gemini.
The information corresponds to 13 October 2026, at 4:49 a.m. Eastern Time, and covers contracts linked to sporting, political and economic events.
The system identifies pricing differences between exchanges and provides historical market records preserving quotations observed at specific moments.
Comparison Across Four Platforms
DeFi Rate collects information from different prediction market platforms to provide comparative market analysis.
The platforms covered include:
- Kalshi: a US marketplace offering contracts linked to future events.
- Polymarket: a prediction market platform using blockchain infrastructure.
- Polymarket US: a US-based event contracts platform.
- Gemini: a platform also offering prediction contracts.
The system displays available prices for equivalent outcomes, allowing users to compare quotations across different operators.
Sports Among the Featured Markets
Sporting events featured prominently among the contracts included in the update.
The markets covered American football, baseball and European football competitions.
DeFi Rate recorded different trading volumes and contract prices, including:
- Barcelona to win LaLiga 2027: Yes contract available at 80 cents on Polymarket, with $200,000 traded over 24 hours.
- Seattle Seahawks vs Denver Broncos: a price of 60 cents for Seattle to win on both Kalshi and Polymarket US.
- Milwaukee to win the National League: a 72-cent contract price on Kalshi, with approximately $180,000 traded over 24 hours.
These figures represent contract prices and trading volumes rather than confirmed sporting results.
Kalshi and Polymarket US Match NFL Prices
One example of price convergence concerned the market for the upcoming Seattle Seahawks versus Denver Broncos game.
According to the snapshot, both exchanges displayed identical prices for purchasing a Yes contract on Seattle:
- Kalshi: $0.60.
- Polymarket US: $0.60.
- Combined 24-hour trading volume: approximately $193,000.
Of this amount, $142,000 was traded on Kalshi and $51,000 on Polymarket US.
The matching quotations demonstrate how different trading platforms can offer equivalent prices for the same event.
Liquidity Differences Between Markets
The system also reveals that equivalent contracts are not always available across all exchanges simultaneously.
In certain cases, DeFi Rate displays valid quotations from only one platform.
This can occur when a particular contract is not among an exchange’s most actively traded markets or when pricing information is unavailable at the time of observation.
Consequently, the absence of a quotation does not necessarily mean that the contract itself is unavailable.
Pricing visibility depends on individual exchange conditions and the data received by the monitoring system.
Political and Economic Prediction Markets
Beyond sports, DeFi Rate also tracks contracts linked to US elections and economic policy developments.
The update includes markets concerning:
- Control of the US Congress.
- The 2026 midterm elections.
- Presidential approval indicators.
- Economic and financial developments.
One contract concerning the US midterm elections showed a 62-cent price on Polymarket for an outcome involving Democratic control of both congressional chambers.
The market recorded approximately $99,000 in trading volume over 24 hours.
These prices reflect market participants’ trading activity rather than definitive electoral forecasts.
DeFi Rate’s Methodology
The platform primarily uses the Yes ask price when comparing prediction market contracts.
These quotations represent the available purchase price for an affirmative outcome and may differ from the most recent executed trade.
DeFi Rate applies consistency checks designed to exclude quotations when:
- Prices across different contract sides are inconsistent.
- A quotation differs excessively from prices available on other exchanges.
- Insufficient information is available to establish a comparable price.
The platform also displays the age of individual quotations, allowing users to assess when the information was observed.
Historical Records and Transparency
One of the platform’s principal features is its use of permanent market snapshots.
Each update preserves information corresponding to a specific moment, including contract prices and trading volumes.
This approach allows historical comparisons without relying exclusively on continuously changing live quotations.
Access to historical records can be particularly valuable in markets where implied probabilities change rapidly following new developments.
Next Steps and Impact
DeFi Rate’s monitoring system reflects the growing development of specialised analytics services for prediction markets.
Comparisons between Kalshi, Polymarket, Polymarket US and Gemini provide insight into how contract prices are established and how liquidity is distributed across exchanges.
The data also demonstrates that some events can attract similar prices across multiple platforms, while others exhibit differences in quotation availability and trading volume.
As prediction markets expand their presence within the financial and sporting sectors, comparative analytics tools could become increasingly relevant for assessing pricing, transparency and commercial opportunities.
Editó: @fonta
