FIFA Prediction Market Partner Faces Scrutiny Over $108 Million in Trades
Gibraltar.- 21 October 2026 | www.zonadeazar.com ADI Predictstreet, the official prediction market partner of the FIFA World Cup 2026, is facing questions about the authenticity of its trading activity following an investigation identifying approximately US$108 million in transactions involving apparently connected cryptocurrency wallets.
In April, the platform signed a FIFA sponsorship agreement reportedly valued at more than US$150 million, becoming the organisation’s first official partner in the prediction markets category.
The findings have raised questions about the transparency of trading volumes and the effectiveness of monitoring systems across prediction market platforms.
Network of 795 Cryptocurrency Wallets Identified
The investigation, conducted by three Harvard University researchers, examined publicly available blockchain transaction records.
Key findings include:
- US$167 million: total trading volume recorded by ADI Predictstreet through late September.
- US$108 million: transactions associated with interconnected cryptocurrency wallets.
- 795 wallets: accounts identified within a shared funding network.
- 99%: proportion of trading attributed to these accounts since late August.
- US$81 million: transactions reportedly generated by just two wallets during the World Cup.
According to the analysis, the wallets received funds from an account that also collected trading fees generated by the platform.
Furthermore, many transactions reportedly occurred between wallets belonging to the same network.
Questions Over Artificial Trading Activity
The trading patterns have raised concerns about potential wash trading, a practice involving coordinated transactions designed to create the appearance of greater market activity.
Such behaviour can artificially increase reported volumes and distort perceptions of market liquidity.
However, the investigation does not establish that ADI Predictstreet deliberately manipulated its trading activity.
Researchers have not determined who controlled the identified wallets or whether the transactions were intentionally coordinated to inflate the platform’s commercial indicators.
Gibraltar Finds No Violations in Preliminary Review
ADI Predictstreet received its Gibraltar gambling licence shortly before announcing its partnership with FIFA.
Following scrutiny of the transactions, Gibraltar’s gambling regulator stated that a preliminary review had found no violations of local rules prohibiting self-trading.
The platform has also been linked to International Holding Company, a conglomerate chaired by Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan, although ADI Predictstreet has disputed claims concerning involvement by Abu Dhabi’s royal family.
The company did not respond to media requests for comments regarding the transactions under examination.
Next Steps and Impact
When FIFA announced its partnership with ADI Predictstreet, it highlighted safeguards including real-time monitoring, suspicious trading detection and sporting integrity protection.
It remains unclear whether these systems identified the trading patterns uncovered by the researchers.
The case has renewed discussions about trading volume transparency, blockchain monitoring and safeguards against market manipulation.
For the prediction markets industry, the controversy demonstrates the importance of independent verification mechanisms capable of distinguishing genuine commercial activity from potentially artificial transactions.
Editó: @fonta
