Instagram Recommendations Lead Users to Illegal Betting Sites in Brazil

Brazil.- 16 September 2026 | www.zonadeazar.com Research into Brazil‘s social-media betting ecosystem has found that 84% of the betting operators most frequently recommended by Instagram are not authorised to operate legally in the country.

The Rede em Jogo project, developed by CondadoLab at PUC-Rio, analysed more than 55,000 accounts and cross-checked its findings against the official list of operators authorised by Brazil‘s Secretariat of Prizes and Betting, SPA.

The findings place renewed attention on the role of automated recommendation systems in directing consumers towards businesses operating outside Brazil‘s regulated market.

One Follow Can Trigger a Recommendation Chain

The study found that exposure can begin after a user follows just one gambling-related account.

Instagram may then recommend additional profiles connected with the same subject.

These can include:

• Betting operators.
• Online casinos.
• Influencers.
• Tipsters.
• Content creators.
• Specialist gambling pages.

The process can gradually direct users into an ecosystem where unauthorised operators are heavily represented.

84% of Recommended Operators Are Illegal

The most significant finding concerns the proportion of unauthorised companies.

Among the betting operators appearing most frequently in the recommendation network, 84% did not hold SPA authorisation to operate in Brazil.

Some may be licensed or incorporated in overseas jurisdictions, but that does not provide legal authority to target Brazilian bettors.

Federal regulation requires operators serving the country to obtain Brazilian authorisation and comply with Ministry of Finance requirements.

More Than Six Million Followers

The potential reach of the network is substantial.

The 100 most frequently recommended profiles collectively account for:

• More than six million followers.
• Approximately 114,000 posts.

Illegal gambling exposure is therefore not confined to obscure or low-reach accounts.

Three Main Profile Categories

Researchers identified three principal categories.

The first consists of betting operators themselves.

The second includes influencers, tipsters, professional bettors and other content creators.

The third covers specialist gambling pages and media.

Together, these groups can form an algorithmically connected environment mixing promotional, commercial, informational and editorial content.

Gambling Presented as Income

Another concern involves the way gambling is portrayed.

Researchers found content connecting betting with:

• Investment.
• Employment.
• Professional activity.
• Financial independence.
• Income generation.
• An alternative to conventional work.

Such messaging conflicts with Brazil‘s regulatory approach, which specifically emphasises that betting is not an investment.

Premium Groups and Paid Tips

Some creators use Instagram as the entry point into private communities.

Telegram is one of the destinations identified.

Products sold through these groups can include:

• Betting tips.
• Paid signals.
• VIP groups.
• Supposedly enhanced odds.
• Casino strategies.
• Methods claiming to identify favourable moments to gamble.

Social media therefore operates as a customer-acquisition channel for additional paid products.

The “Tigrinho” Phenomenon

Online casino games also feature prominently.

Researchers identified posts claiming to teach users how to recognise supposed patterns indicating when a game may produce larger payouts.

Visual animations, interface changes and sequences of events are sometimes presented as predictive signals.

Such claims can create the false impression that chance-based games can be reliably forecast.

Illegal Operators Use Social Media for Acquisition

Unauthorised brands can use social platforms to reach Brazilian customers directly.

Their content can combine:

• Humour.
• Viral videos.
• Promotions.
• Sports odds.
• AI-generated material.
• Prize imagery.
• Casino games.

This allows an illegal operator to develop brand recognition even without local authorisation.

Channelisation Challenge

Heavy exposure to unauthorised platforms can undermine Brazil‘s efforts to channel consumers towards the licensed market.

Authorities want bettors to use operators subject to national regulatory controls.

However, the offshore market remains substantial.

Research published in 2026 estimated illegal operators accounted for approximately 38% to 44% of online betting activity during the first half of the year.

SPA Intensifies Enforcement

The SPA has been increasing efforts against unauthorised gambling.

Enforcement involves co-operation with:

• Federal Police.
• Payment companies.
• Digital platforms.
• Technology suppliers.
• Judicial authorities.

The objective extends beyond blocking websites to disrupting payment, advertising and customer-acquisition infrastructure.

Influencers Face Greater Scrutiny

Influencer promotion has become a particular regulatory focus.

In July, a Federal Police operation supported technically by the SPA investigated a network suspected of using influencers to promote illegal gambling websites.

Court measures included asset freezes potentially reaching R$951.1 million, while suspects were prohibited from continuing to promote identified unauthorised platforms.

The case demonstrates that enforcement may extend beyond operators to members of their promotional networks.

Challenge for Instagram and Other Platforms

The latest findings broaden the debate to the technology companies themselves.

The issue is not simply whether illegal accounts exist.

It is also whether automated recommendation systems actively increase their visibility.

That distinction is important because algorithmic amplification can expand reach far beyond a profile’s existing audience.

Licence Verification

For Brazilian consumers, official authorisation remains the clearest distinction between legal and illegal operators.

A large Instagram following, influencer endorsement or frequent appearance in recommendations does not establish legitimacy.

Consumers need to verify whether a betting brand appears on the SPA’s authorised list and operates through approved Brazilian domains.

Industry Context

Brazil has entered a second phase in the development of its regulated betting market.

After establishing licensing, taxation, advertising standards and responsible-gambling obligations, limiting competition from unauthorised platforms is becoming one of the system’s principal challenges.

Social networks are central to that fight.

If algorithms repeatedly direct betting-interested users towards illegal operators, regulatory effectiveness can be weakened even after thousands of unauthorised domains are blocked.

The issue therefore connects gambling regulation, digital advertising, algorithms, influencer marketing and consumer protection.

Next Steps and Impact

The study is likely to increase pressure for stronger co-operation between the SPA and major technology platforms.

The challenge is not limited to paid advertising. Authorities may also need to address the organic recommendation of gambling accounts operating outside Brazil‘s legal framework.

For Instagram and other social networks, this could require stronger licence-verification systems and more specific treatment of commercial gambling accounts.

For licensed operators, the issue is also competitive: regulated companies pay taxes and meet KYC, responsible-gambling and advertising obligations, while illegal competitors can use many of the same digital acquisition channels without equivalent compliance costs.

With 84% of Instagram’s most recommended betting operators identified as unauthorised in Brazil, the country’s fight against illegal gambling increasingly includes a new question: how much do major platforms’ own recommendation algorithms contribute to keeping the offshore market visible and accessible?

Editó: @fonta