Macau Casino EBITDA Forecast to Decline 11% in Q3 2026
China.- 14 October 2026 | www.zonadeazar.com Financial services firm CLSA has forecast an 11% year-on-year decline in Macau’s casino sector EBITDA during the third quarter of 2026, bringing the industry’s operating earnings to approximately US$1.84 billion.
The projection reflects weaker gross gaming revenue, rising operating expenses and increased commissions and incentives offered to players.
Although above-normal VIP win rates are expected to provide some relief, analysts believe casino operators will continue facing pressure on profitability over the coming months.
Gross Gaming Revenue Falls 3.8%
During the third quarter of 2026, Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) reached approximately MOP60.2 billion, equivalent to US$7.45 billion.
The figure represents a 3.8% year-on-year decline, according to data used by CLSA.
Lower gaming revenue is one of the main factors behind the projected reduction in sector EBITDA.
The report indicates that higher visitor numbers have not necessarily translated into stronger casino revenue.
EBITDA Expected to Reach US$1.84 Billion
Jeffrey Kiang, an analyst at CLSA, forecasts combined Macau casino EBITDA of approximately US$1.84 billion for the July-to-September period.
The estimate represents an 11% decrease compared with the corresponding quarter in 2025.
EBITDA measures earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation, providing an indication of operating profitability.
The anticipated reduction reflects both lower gaming revenue and higher expenditure associated with customer acquisition and retention.
Commissions and Rebates Reach US$1.54 Billion
One of the report’s most significant findings concerns the growing cost of commissions and commercial incentives.
CLSA expects these expenses to reach US$1.54 billion, compared with US$1.44 billion during the third quarter of 2025.
Their proportion of gross gaming revenue is forecast to increase:
- Third quarter of 2025: 18.6% of GGR.
- Third quarter of 2026: 20.7% of GGR.
This increase reduces the proportion of revenue operators can convert into operating earnings.
VIP Segment Provides Temporary Support
The report highlights that casino win rates within the VIP segment remained above their typical levels.
During eight of the nine weeks examined by CLSA, VIP win rates ranged between 3% and 4.1%.
These results helped partially offset the impact of higher commissions and promotional expenditure.
However, the brokerage believes the improvement is cyclical and temporary rather than evidence of a structural increase in profitability.
EBITDA Margin Falls to 24.6%
CLSA estimates that EBITDA as a proportion of gross gaming revenue will reach 24.6% during the third quarter.
The comparison illustrates changes in profitability:
- Q3 2025: 27%.
- Q2 2026: 24.2%.
- Q3 2026: estimated 24.6%.
Although the figure suggests a modest quarter-on-quarter improvement, the margin remains significantly below the level recorded a year earlier.
The brokerage uses this ratio as a proxy for analysing casino sector profitability.
Sands China Faces Higher Operating Costs
Among the operators examined, Sands China faces additional pressure from rising operating expenses.
CLSA forecasts a 12% year-on-year increase in property-level operating costs.
The growth is associated with changes to the company’s player reinvestment strategy introduced during the second half of 2025.
Such expenditure includes promotional incentives and other benefits designed to strengthen customer acquisition and retention.
More Visitors, But Lower Gaming Revenue
Tourism figures also reveal a disconnect between visitor growth and gaming performance.
During July and August, Macau welcomed 8.02 million visitors, representing a 4.5% year-on-year increase.
However, the number of overnight visitors declined 2.5% to 3.05 million.
Analysts noted that an increase in day-trip visitors had not been sufficient to generate higher gross gaming revenue.
The figures highlight the importance of visitor profiles and spending patterns rather than overall tourist numbers alone.
Outlook for the Remainder of 2026
CLSA maintains a cautious outlook for Macau’s casino sector over the coming months.
The brokerage forecasts:
- Fourth quarter of 2026: approximately 1% year-on-year decline in GGR.
- Full year 2027: approximately 2% GGR growth.
These projections suggest limited industry expansion and continued challenges for operators seeking to restore historical profitability margins.
CLSA maintains a neutral sector outlook for the next six months.
Next Steps and Impact
CLSA’s projections indicate that Macau’s casino operators face an environment of slower growth and increasing commercial costs.
The anticipated 11% decline in EBITDA, combined with higher commissions and player incentives, highlights the difficulties of converting gaming revenue into operating earnings.
Although VIP performance provides temporary support, future margin development will depend on a more sustained recovery in GGR and operators’ ability to control expenditure.
Over the coming quarters, attention will focus on companies’ final financial results, tourism trends and commercial strategies aimed at improving profitability.
Editó: @fonta
