Nasdaq Seeks CFTC Approval to Launch Inflation Prediction Markets
United States.- 3 November 2026 | www.zonadeazar.com Nasdaq MRX Futures has submitted an application to the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) seeking authorisation to operate a new regulated exchange for event contracts.
The proposal includes the introduction of prediction markets linked to US inflation, with official economic indicators determining contract settlement.
The initiative represents another development in the integration of prediction markets into traditional finance, where companies including Kalshi, ForecastEx and Robinhood already offer products associated with event-based trading.
Nasdaq Plans to Operate Its Own Regulated Exchange
Unlike businesses that distribute event contracts through third-party platforms, Nasdaq intends to establish its own trading infrastructure.
Nasdaq MRX Futures has therefore applied to become a Designated Contract Market (DCM), a type of derivatives exchange regulated by the CFTC.
This framework would enable the company to operate a marketplace for contracts linked to economic events.
The application remains pending regulatory approval, and the proposed exchange is not yet commercially available.
Contracts Based on US Inflation
Nasdaq’s initial products would focus on two US economic indicators:
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): measures changes in the overall prices of goods and services.
- Core CPI: excludes food and energy, two categories that frequently experience greater price fluctuations.
Both products would rely on official statistics published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
The objective is to allow participants to take positions on future inflation outcomes without having to trade directly in equities, bonds or currencies.
How the Contracts Would Work
The proposed contracts would settle according to whether an economic indicator exceeds a specified threshold.
For example, a contract could ask:
Will US inflation exceed 3%?
An illustrative settlement would be:
- Inflation reaches 3.2%: the above-threshold contract settles at US$100.
- Inflation reaches 2.9%: the same contract settles at US$0.
Participants could therefore trade their expectations concerning a specific economic indicator.
Final settlement would depend on official US economic data and the conditions established for each contract.
Inflation Becomes a Tradable Outcome
Inflation indicators have a substantial influence on financial markets.
Their results can affect interest rate expectations, Federal Reserve decisions and the performance of different asset classes.
Traditionally, investors express their expectations about inflation through instruments such as bonds, shares and currencies.
Nasdaq’s proposal introduces an alternative: trading the outcome of an economic indicator directly through event contracts.
This approach could support the development of financial products based on observable macroeconomic variables.
Kalshi and ForecastEx Already Operate in the Sector
The initiative comes amid the expansion of US prediction markets.
Several companies have developed business models involving event contracts:
- Kalshi: offers contracts covering economics, politics, sports and other events.
- ForecastEx: focuses primarily on economic and financial outcomes.
- Robinhood: has incorporated event contracts into its mainstream investment platform.
- Cboe: is developing products linked to corporate performance and financial events.
Nasdaq intends to enter this segment through its own regulated exchange, initially focusing on inflation.
CFTC Continues Developing the Regulatory Framework
Nasdaq’s application comes as the CFTC continues examining the regulatory treatment of prediction markets.
One of the central questions concerns which event contracts fall within the derivatives framework and which may be subject to other legal requirements.
The debate has been particularly prominent in contracts linked to sporting events.
Nasdaq’s proposed products, however, would be based on official economic indicators.
Their approval will depend on the CFTC’s assessment and compliance with the requirements applicable to regulated derivatives exchanges.
Prediction Markets Move Closer to Traditional Finance
Nasdaq’s proposal reflects a broader development in event-based trading.
Although prediction markets gained widespread attention through elections and sports, their applications are increasingly extending into economic indicators.
Inflation contracts could provide additional ways to express financial expectations or manage certain types of economic exposure.
However, these instruments also involve risks because their value depends on future outcomes that may differ from participants’ expectations.
The involvement of established financial institutions could expand the reach of these products, subject to regulatory approval.
Industry Impact and Next Steps
The next stage will involve the CFTC’s review of the application submitted by Nasdaq MRX Futures.
The regulator will determine whether the proposal meets the requirements for operating a regulated derivatives exchange.
Until formal approval is granted, Nasdaq’s proposed inflation contracts will not be available for trading.
The application could be amended, delayed or rejected during the regulatory process.
By seeking authorisation to operate its own derivatives exchange and introduce contracts linked to US CPI data, Nasdaq is exploring how prediction markets could become part of mainstream finance, expanding their applications beyond sports and political events.
Edited by: @fonta
