Prediction Markets Could Capture 21% of NFL Wagering in 2026
United States.- 9 October 2026 | www.zonadeazar.com Prediction markets could account for around 21% of all NFL-related wagering-equivalent activity during the 2026 season, according to a forecast from Eilers & Krejcik Gaming, EKG.
The research firm estimates approximately $40 billion in combined activity across regulated sportsbooks and event-contract platforms.
Sportsbooks Remain Dominant
Traditional operators are still expected to account for most of the market.
EKG forecasts approximately $31.7 billion in regulated sportsbook handle, representing around 79% of the combined total.
That would mark year-on-year growth of roughly 8%.
$8.4 Billion for Prediction Markets
Sports-event contracts traded through prediction markets are projected to generate the equivalent of approximately $8.4 billion.
That would give the segment around 21% of combined NFL wagering activity.
Handle Analog
An important distinction applies to the comparison.
Prediction markets operate as exchanges where users buy and sell contracts, meaning their raw trading volume cannot be directly compared with sportsbook handle.
EKG therefore uses a metric known as Handle Analog, HAN, to translate the activity into a sportsbook-comparable figure.
The full conversion methodology has not been publicly disclosed.
Access to Non-Sportsbook States
One advantage for prediction markets is their availability in jurisdictions where commercial sportsbooks remain restricted.
Sports contracts are available in major markets including:
- California.
- Texas.
- Georgia.
- Florida.
This allows platforms to reach consumers without access to a traditional competitive sports betting market.
Expansion Rather Than Substitution
EKG Partner Emeritus Chris Grove has indicated that prediction markets currently appear to be expanding the overall wagering pool more than directly replacing sportsbook activity.
The estimated impact on traditional handle in highly competitive sports betting states remains relatively limited so far.
Football Volume Accelerates
Football-related contract volume across selected exchanges reached approximately 2.94 billion contracts between 1 and 14 September.
That was almost four times the level recorded during a comparable period in 2025.
Polymarket and Kalshi
The start of the NFL season also boosted downloads for leading prediction-market platforms.
During kickoff week, Polymarket recorded approximately 755,000 US downloads, while Kalshi reached around 602,000.
Parlays Still Favour Sportsbooks
Traditional sportsbooks retain a significant advantage through one of their highest-margin products.
Parlays could account for more than 40% of regulated NFL handle and an even larger share of sportsbook revenue.
Prediction-market platforms are responding by expanding combination contracts that partly reproduce the same user experience.
AGA Forecast Differs
The American Gaming Association previously projected approximately $29.5 billion in legal NFL wagering through commercial sportsbooks alone.
The difference between forecasts reflects distinct methodologies and market definitions.
Regulatory Conflict
Prediction-market growth continues to create regulatory disputes across the United States.
Several states argue that sports contracts function as sports betting and should therefore be subject to state licensing, taxation and gaming regulation.
Platforms maintain that their contracts are federally regulated products overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, CFTC.
Next Steps or Impact
The 2026 season provides the first major test of large-scale competition between sportsbooks and prediction markets.
EKG’s projected 21% share indicates that sports event contracts have already reached meaningful scale within US wagering.
Activity through the remainder of the season and the Super Bowl should provide a clearer indication of how much of that growth represents new demand and how much begins to substitute betting that would otherwise have gone to sportsbooks.
Editó: @fonta
