Prediction Markets Step Up US Lobbying Amid Regulatory Fight
United States.- 7 October 2026 | www.zonadeazar.com Leading prediction-market companies have significantly increased political and regulatory activity across the United States during 2026 as the dispute over who should oversee sports and other event contracts intensifies.
Kalshi, Polymarket and the Coalition for Prediction Markets have spent at least $3 million on lobbying and political contributions at federal and state level this year.
Kalshi Leads the Push
Kalshi accounts for much of that activity.
By September, the company had at least one registered lobbyist in 41 states, with almost all of those hires made since April.
The expansion comes as states increase regulatory and legal action against sports-related contracts they consider equivalent to betting products.
Attorney General Contributions
During the first half of 2026, Kalshi contributed:
- $147,500 to the Republican Attorneys General Association.
- $170,000 to the Democratic Attorneys General Association.
The company also made contributions connected with individual attorneys general and other political figures.
Kalshi says it supports candidates from both parties and that political contributions do not determine officials’ decisions.
Governor Groups Receive Funding
The strategy has also extended to organisations supporting state governors.
Kalshi contributed:
- $100,000 to the Republican Governors Association.
- $150,000 to the Democratic Governors Association.
State-level political engagement is particularly important as multiple jurisdictions seek to apply their own sports betting laws to prediction-market products.
California and New York Focus
California and New York are among the main state lobbying battlegrounds.
Kalshi reported approximately $62,000 in lobbying expenditure in California during the first half of the year.
In New York, the company has substantially increased its contracts with lobbying firms, with projected spending exceeding $400,000 through July 2027.
Nearly $1 Million in Washington
Kalshi has also expanded its federal operation.
The company opened a Washington office in January and spent nearly $1 million on federal lobbying through 30 June.
Firms hired include Miller Strategies and Lincoln Policy Group.
Polymarket Also Active
Polymarket spent approximately $180,000 on federal lobbying in 2026.
Unlike Kalshi, however, it had not registered state-level lobbyists according to the disclosures reviewed.
Coalition for Prediction Markets
Kalshi is also a member of the Coalition for Prediction Markets alongside Robinhood, Coinbase, Crypto.com and Underdog.
Polymarket is not part of the coalition.
By the end of June, the organisation had paid $100,000 to four Invariant lobbyists and had also registered representatives from Determinant.
Core Regulatory Dispute
The conflict centres on how event contracts should be legally classified.
Prediction-market companies argue that the products are financial contracts or swaps overseen federally by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, CFTC.
A number of states argue that certain contracts, particularly those tied to sports, function in practice as wagers and should therefore be subject to state licensing, taxation and gambling regulation.
Divided Court Decisions
Federal courts have not reached a uniform position.
Different courts have taken varying approaches to whether state gambling laws can be applied to prediction markets.
A recent Sixth Circuit ruling involving Kalshi and Ohio strengthened the ability of states to enforce their laws in certain circumstances.
44 Attorneys General Weigh In
State opposition has also become increasingly coordinated.
In July, 44 state attorneys general signed a letter arguing that federal commodities oversight should not automatically displace state authority over gambling.
Federal Bills Under Scrutiny
Kalshi’s disclosures identify lobbying activity connected with several federal measures.
These include:
- The Prediction Market Act.
- The Protect College Sports Act.
- The National Defense Authorization Act.
Listing legislation in lobbying disclosures does not by itself establish whether the company supports or opposes every provision involved.
Next Steps or Impact
The industry’s political campaign is preparing prediction-market companies for multiple possible regulatory outcomes.
If courts give states broader authority over these products, platforms could face a patchwork of different licences, taxes and compliance rules.
With Kalshi already represented by lobbyists in 41 states and multiple legal cases still unresolved, the question of whether prediction markets should primarily be treated as financial markets or gambling products will remain one of the central US regulatory disputes.
Editó: @fonta
