Robinhood Prediction Market Revenue Could Reach US$1.7 Billion by 2028

United States.- 28 October 2026 | www.zonadeazar.com Prediction markets could become one of Robinhood Markets’ largest revenue sources over the coming years, potentially surpassing its cryptocurrency trading business.

According to forecasts from financial research firm Bernstein, Robinhood could generate US$1.7 billion in prediction market revenue by 2028, compared with US$1.6 billion projected from cryptocurrency trading.

The estimates highlight the growing importance of event contracts within US investment platforms.

Revenue Could More Than Double

Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani reiterated his expectations for the expansion of Robinhood’s event contract business.

The forecasts outline the following development:

  • 2026: US$650 million in prediction market revenue.
  • 2028: US$1.7 billion in projected revenue.
  • Estimated growth: more than 160% over the period.
  • Share of total revenue: approximately 18% by 2028.

If these projections materialise, prediction markets would become one of Robinhood’s fastest-growing business segments.

Prediction Markets Expected to Surpass Cryptocurrency Revenue

One of the report’s key findings is that event contracts could generate more revenue than cryptocurrency trading.

Bernstein’s projections for 2028 include:

  • Prediction markets: US$1.7 billion.
  • Cryptocurrency trading: US$1.6 billion.

The US$100 million difference would represent a significant shift in Robinhood’s revenue composition.

According to the report, prediction market revenue already exceeded cryptocurrency trading revenue for the first time on a quarterly basis during the second quarter of 2026.

Bernstein Raises Robinhood Revenue Forecasts

The expansion of event contracts has also prompted Bernstein to revise its overall revenue expectations for Robinhood.

The latest estimates represent increases compared with previous forecasts:

  • 2026: 3% upward revision.
  • 2027: 4% increase.
  • 2028: 3% increase.

Analysts expect Robinhood to generate approximately US$9.4 billion in total revenue by 2028, with prediction markets contributing US$1.7 billion.

Expectations Ahead of Third-Quarter Results

The projections were published ahead of Robinhood’s third-quarter 2026 financial results, scheduled for release after US markets closed on 27 October.

Bernstein expected quarterly revenue of approximately US$1.5 billion, representing an estimated 13% increase compared with the previous quarter.

The forecast reflects higher trading activity across equities, options and event contracts, alongside a recovery in cryptocurrency trading volumes.

Coinbase Could Also Reach US$2 Billion

The report identifies similar growth opportunities for Coinbase Global, one of the largest US-based cryptocurrency exchanges.

Bernstein forecasts that Coinbase’s revenue from event contracts and derivatives could develop as follows:

  • 2026: US$600 million.
  • 2028: US$2 billion.
  • Estimated growth: more than 230%.

Unlike Robinhood’s prediction market revenue forecast, Coinbase’s figures include both event contracts and other derivatives products.

These include perpetual futures, which allow traders to maintain positions without a predetermined expiry date.

Competition Among Financial Platforms Intensifies

The US prediction market industry remains concentrated among a relatively small number of major operators.

However, the growing involvement of established financial platforms such as Robinhood and Coinbase is reshaping the competitive environment.

Both companies possess technological infrastructure, substantial customer bases and financial resources that could support expansion into contracts linked to sporting, economic and political events.

Digital asset-related contracts are also emerging as one of the fastest-growing non-sports categories.

Prediction Markets as a Customer Acquisition Tool

Beyond direct trading revenue, prediction markets offer opportunities to attract new customers to financial services platforms.

Robinhood executives have previously indicated that some users who initially trade yes-or-no event contracts subsequently explore other investment products.

These include:

  • Options trading.
  • Futures contracts.
  • Traditional investment products.
  • Retirement savings accounts.

This behaviour could make prediction markets an increasingly important customer acquisition and engagement tool.

Regulation and Competition Remain Key Factors

Despite the positive financial projections, the sector’s development will depend on several factors.

These include consumer demand, trading volumes, competition between platforms and the evolving US regulatory environment.

Ongoing disputes concerning the legal classification of sports event contracts continue to present challenges for operators seeking nationwide expansion.

Outlook for 2028

Bernstein’s estimates position prediction markets as a potential growth driver for major US financial platforms.

For Robinhood, reaching US$1.7 billion in annual revenue would allow event contracts to surpass cryptocurrency trading and account for approximately one-fifth of the company’s total revenue.

For Coinbase, the projected US$2 billion from event contracts and derivatives similarly reflects the financial sector’s growing interest in diversifying its revenue streams.

However, these figures remain analyst forecasts rather than confirmed financial results. Their achievement will depend on market demand, commercial performance and regulatory developments over the next two years.

Edited by: @fonta

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