Brazil: Lula’s Re-Election Opens New Battle Over Gambling Ban
Brazil.- 27 October 2026 | www.zonadeazar.com The re-election of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva as President of Brazil has opened a new phase in the dispute between the Government and the sports betting and online casino industries.
Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court (TSE) confirmed Lula’s victory in the 25 October 2026 presidential runoff, with almost 52% of the vote, compared with just over 48% for Flávio Bolsonaro.
The result creates a new political environment for operators seeking to overturn Provisional Measure No. 1,394/2026, which introduced a nationwide prohibition on fixed-odds betting.
The dispute will now continue on two principal fronts: the Federal Supreme Court (STF) and the National Congress.
The Gambling Ban Remains in Force
On 25 September, Lula signed Provisional Measure No. 1,394, prohibiting sports betting and online gaming operations.
The decision brought activities in Brazil’s regulated betting market, which launched in January 2025, to a halt.
The Government justified the measure as a response to household indebtedness and gambling-related harm.
During the presidential campaign, Lula defended the prohibition and reiterated his intention to prevent betting platforms from returning.
However, the measure’s long-term validity remains dependent on parliamentary consideration and pending judicial decisions.
Supreme Court to Examine Constitutionality
The industry’s first avenue of challenge is the Federal Supreme Court, where several trade organisations and football clubs have filed legal actions against the prohibition.
Justice Luiz Fux, responsible for examining the challenges, previously indicated that he would address the matter after the electoral process had concluded.
Arguments raised by the challengers include:
- Potential interference with existing contracts and operating licences.
- The financial consequences of closing the regulated market.
- Job losses associated with the prohibition.
- The risk of consumers migrating towards illegal gambling platforms.
The court will need to determine whether the measure complies with constitutional requirements.
No final STF ruling overturning the prohibition has yet been issued.
Operators Highlight Investment and Licensing Losses
The gambling industry has raised particular concerns about the impact on companies that previously obtained federal operating authorisations.
Operators made substantial investments to enter Brazil’s regulated market.
Figures highlighted by industry representatives include:
- BRL30 million: licensing fees paid for certain five-year authorisations.
- BRL5 million: additional financial reserves required from operators.
- BRL1.2 billion: estimated industry revenue lost during the suspension of operations.
- More than BRL400 million: estimated government tax revenue lost, according to industry calculations.
These figures represent industry estimates and claims rather than court-confirmed damages or independently established fiscal losses.
The scheduled cancellation of licences on 25 October also raises questions about whether existing authorisations could be restored if the prohibition is overturned.
National Congress Becomes the Second Battleground
Provisional Measure No. 1,394 must also be examined by the National Congress.
Members of the joint committee responsible for reviewing the measure have already been nominated from both chambers, although the committee had not completed its formal establishment or appointed its leadership when the report was published.
Key legislative milestones include:
- 9 November: the measure enters an urgency procedure that may block consideration of other legislation.
- Late November: the initial deadline for congressional consideration.
- Possible extension: an additional 60-day period under the applicable constitutional procedure.
Congress may approve, amend or reject the measure.
Alternatively, the provisional measure could lapse if parliamentary consideration is not completed within the statutory deadlines.
Sports Betting Could Return Without Online Casinos
One option reportedly under discussion in Congress would allow sports betting to resume while maintaining the prohibition on online casinos.
Such an approach would represent a substantial amendment to the presidential measure.
However, no final legislative agreement has been reached.
Another unresolved question concerns operators that had already obtained authorisation under Brazil’s previous regulatory framework.
If betting operations are permitted to resume, Congress may need to determine whether existing licences should be reinstated or whether companies must submit new applications.
Industry Impact and Next Steps
Lula’s re-election changes the political landscape, but does not itself determine the legal future of gambling in Brazil.
The Government continues to support the prohibition, while operators, trade associations and other stakeholders are seeking a return to regulated activity.
Upcoming decisions from the STF and National Congress will be decisive for the sector.
For the iGaming industry, Brazil’s regulatory dispute raises major questions concerning legal certainty, consumer protection, private investment, tax revenue and competition with illegal gambling markets.
Editó: @fonta
