Brazil: IBJR Statement on the Data Released by ABRAS
Brazil.- October 30, 2026 www.zonadeazar.com The Brazilian Institute for Responsible Gaming (IBJR) views with concern the data released by ABRAS, which does not prove that the ban on gambling led to an increase in food purchases. To establish this relationship, it is necessary to assess how much consumption would have grown anyway, taking into account household income, employment, prices, and resources.
The organization’s own surveys show that food retail sales were already growing significantly before the ban. In the weekly ABRAS/NIQ monitoring report, nominal sales rose 7.9% between September 14 and 20—before the provisional measure—and 7.4% between October 5 and 11, compared to the same weeks in 2025. This historical context must be taken into account before attributing October’s performance to the ban. In its analysis of August, ABRAS itself linked the increase in consumption to improvements in employment and income and to lower food prices, with a real increase of 2.71% in household spending for the year. These factors predate the ban and must be distinguished from those attributed to the measure.
The decline in transactions via Pix also does not allow us to conclude that the funds went to supermarkets. The number of transfers does not reveal how much households stopped spending on gambling, where the money went, or to what extent gambling continued on clandestine platforms.
For the same reason, it is necessary to clarify the technical basis of the figures circulating in the debate, such as the R$ 143 billion that betting companies allegedly diverted from commerce and the R$ 62.5 billion from household income. According to the Ministry of Finance, the regulated market recorded approximately R$ 37 billion in GGR in 2025. GGR is the total amount wagered minus the prizes paid out—that is, the net expenditure by bettors at authorized companies. In the same year, household consumption totaled approximately R$ 8.1 trillion, according to the IBGE. GGR thus amounts to approximately 0.46% of that consumption.
The R$ 62.5 billion figure stems from an estimate based on transfers via Pix, without distinguishing between licensed operators and illegal platforms, while the R$ 143 billion figure comes from an estimate of sales that retailers would have failed to make. Neither figure represents the actual spending by gamblers in the regulated market. Before drawing conclusions about the sector based on these figures, it is necessary to clarify the methods, time periods, and markets under consideration.
Edited by @pererarte www.zonadeazar.com
