ANJL Warns Online Casino Ban Could Double Brazil’s Illegal Market
Brazil.- 24 September 2026 | www.zonadeazar.com Brazil‘s National Association of Games and Lotteries, ANJL, has warned that a potential ban on regulated online casino products could significantly increase the share of activity captured by illegal operators.
According to a technical study produced by the association, the illegal market could rise from approximately 41% of total activity to as much as 82%.
ANJL Estimate
The projection comes from analysis carried out by the association’s technical team.
ANJL argues that removing online casino products from licensed platforms would not necessarily eliminate consumer demand.
Instead, it believes a significant proportion of players could migrate to unregulated websites.
From 41% to 82%
The association’s headline projection is a potential increase in illegal-market share from 41% to 82%.
The figure represents an ANJL estimate and should not be interpreted as an official government forecast.
Online Casino Debate
The study arrives amid political debate over additional restrictions on Brazil‘s regulated betting sector.
Options discussed publicly have included a possible ban on:
- Online slots.
- Crash games.
- Other digital casino products.
Sports betting could remain legal under some of the scenarios under discussion.
No Final Ban Yet
No general ban on regulated online casino products has yet been enacted.
The issue remains subject to political and legislative debate.
Thousands of Illegal Domains
ANJL points to the number of accessible illegal sites as one of the main risks.
During a monitoring period from 11 to 18 September, its technical team identified 6,409 illegal betting domains that were responding normally.
13.7 New Sites Per Day
The study also examined activity between June and August.
ANJL calculated an average of 13.7 new illegal domains registered per day during that period.
Rapidly Adapting Illegal Supply
The association argues that this illustrates how quickly unlicensed operators can respond to enforcement.
Illegal businesses can:
- Create new domains.
- Change URLs.
- Launch mirror sites.
- Alter infrastructure.
- Operate from overseas.
Offshore Hosting
The technical analysis also examined where illegal sites are hosted.
ANJL says a large proportion of identified platforms use infrastructure that makes their true hosting origin difficult to determine.
Networks Masking Origin
The association says 55.8% of offshore sites use distribution networks capable of masking hosting origin.
This can complicate regulatory enforcement.
Domains Outside “.br”
ANJL also reported that 98.3% of identified domains do not use Brazil‘s “.br” ending.
It cites this as further evidence that much of the illegal market relies on international infrastructure.
Consumer Protection
The association argues that migration to unregulated sites would weaken player safeguards.
Licensed operators must comply with requirements covering:
- Self-exclusion.
- Customer identification.
- Responsible gambling.
- Access restrictions.
- Anti-money laundering.
- Regulatory supervision.
Social Programme Beneficiaries
Brazil‘s regulated market has introduced restrictions relating to certain recipients of social benefits.
ANJL argues that illegal operators are not bound by equivalent controls.
Financial and Mental Health
The association says prohibition could therefore affect some of the consumers policymakers are seeking to protect.
Its position is that demand may continue but shift to sites that do not provide mandatory financial-health or responsible-gambling tools.
Potential Tax Revenue Loss
ANJL also projects a significant fiscal impact.
Its study estimates that Brazil could lose between BRL3.6 billion and BRL7.4 billion per year in revenue.
An Estimate, Not a Confirmed Outcome
These figures are projections produced by the trade association.
Actual impact would depend on factors including:
- Player behaviour.
- Migration rates.
- Enforcement.
- Payment blocking.
- Regulatory capacity.
- Performance of the legal market.
Plínio Lemos Jorge
ANJL President Plínio Lemos Jorge argued that millions of players may continue gambling even if specific regulated products are prohibited.
In his view, activity would shift towards platforms that neither pay Brazilian taxes nor comply with local player-protection requirements.
Channelisation
The association’s argument centres on channelisation.
This measures the proportion of total gambling activity taking place through licensed operators.
Lower channelisation means a larger share of spending moving into illegal markets.
Industry Position
The argument that excessive restrictions can strengthen illegal operators is frequently raised by licensed companies and trade associations.
The sector argues that regulation must balance player protection with the ability of licensed businesses to compete against offshore platforms.
Political Debate
The issue is being discussed amid wider concerns over the social impact of online betting.
Key policy concerns include:
- Household debt.
- Addiction.
- Protection of minors.
- Advertising.
- Social-benefit spending.
- Vulnerable consumers.
Restriction Bills
Several bills have also been introduced in Congress seeking to restrict individual products or fixed-odds betting more broadly.
Some focus specifically on online casino games while others seek wider prohibitions.
Regulated Market Since 2025
Brazil has operated a federally regulated betting market since January 2025.
Licensed operators must comply with licensing, taxation, compliance and consumer-protection requirements.
Role of the SPA
The Ministry of Finance’s Secretariat of Prizes and Betting supervises the federal market.
Its responsibilities include:
- Authorisation.
- Enforcement.
- Website blocking.
- Advertising supervision.
- Action against illegal operators.
Illegal-Market Enforcement
Brazil has also strengthened tools targeting unlicensed platforms.
Measures include:
- Domain blocking.
- Payment disruption.
- Identification of intermediaries.
- Advertising restrictions.
- App removals.
Enforcement Effectiveness
A central question is how effectively these tools can reduce offshore activity.
ANJL argues that the constant appearance of new domains demonstrates the limits of technical blocking when used on its own.
Industry Context
The future of online casino has become one of Brazil‘s main gambling-policy debates in 2026.
Government, Congress, trade associations and licensed operators hold different views on how to balance restrictions, player protection and channelisation.
Next Steps and Impact
ANJL is expected to use the study as part of its case against further restrictions.
Any regulatory change will depend on decisions by the federal executive and the progress of legislation in Congress.
The debate will continue to centre on whether removing regulated products reduces gambling demand or instead shifts part of that activity to illegal platforms.
Editó: @fonta
