Betfred Warns MGD Increase Could Threaten UK Retail Betting
United Kingdom.- 22 September 2026 | www.zonadeazar.com Betfred founder Fred Done has warned that another increase in gambling-machine taxation could significantly accelerate betting-shop closures across the United Kingdom and threaten the long-term viability of the retail model.
His warning centres on a potential doubling of the standard Machine Games Duty, MGD, from its current 20% rate to 40%.
Betfred Scenario
Done argues that such a change could force Betfred to close approximately 495 shops within one year.
The company estimates that around 2,575 jobs could also be affected.
These figures are Betfred’s own projections under a hypothetical tax scenario and are not official government forecasts.
£67 Million in Potential Lost Tax Revenue
Betfred estimates that the closures could also result in around £67 million in foregone Exchequer revenue.
The company uses the figure to argue that the impact of higher machine taxation should be assessed alongside the wider effect on employment and existing tax receipts.
Current Machine Games Duty
Machine Games Duty is charged on the net takings generated by certain gaming machines.
For the 2026-27 tax year, the standard rate applying to machines costing up to £5 to play remains 20%.
A higher 25% rate applies to certain machines where the maximum cost of play can exceed £5.
Potential 40% Rate
Industry discussion has focused on the possibility of the standard rate being increased to 40%.
That level is not currently part of the UK’s Machine Games Duty structure.
Any change would depend on future fiscal decisions by the government.
Gaming Machines Remain Important to Betfred
Despite restrictions introduced over recent years, machines remain an important component of Betfred’s retail economics.
Done says they account for approximately half of the profit generated by the company’s betting shops.
That dependence explains why a significant increase in MGD could have a disproportionate impact on the retail estate.
£2 Stake Limit Since 2019
Fixed Odds Betting Terminals were already substantially affected in 2019 when the maximum stake was reduced to £2.
The change altered the economics of machine gaming and forced retail bookmakers to adjust their operating models.
Around 1,094 UK Shops
Betfred currently operates approximately 1,094 retail betting shops across the UK.
Closing 495 locations would therefore represent a substantial reduction in its physical estate.
132 Closures During 2026
The company has already closed 132 shops in 2026.
Betfred has linked those decisions to a combination of higher employment costs, employer National Insurance contributions, wage inflation, gambling taxation and broader economic uncertainty.
Remote Gaming Duty Already at 40%
The sector has already absorbed a significant increase in online gaming taxation this year.
From 1 April 2026, Remote Gaming Duty rose from 21% to 40% of remote gaming profits.
The change formed part of a wider government package intended to increase revenue from remote gambling.
New Remote Betting Rate From 2027
A new 25% rate for certain remote betting activity is also scheduled to take effect from 1 April 2027.
Remote bets on UK horse racing will remain taxed at 15%.
Retail Taxes Were Left Unchanged in 2025 Reform
The gambling-tax package announced at Budget 2025 focused primarily on remote gambling.
The government did not at that stage increase the principal taxes applying to in-person betting.
The current MGD debate therefore raises a separate question over future taxation of the retail sector.
Other Operators Have Reduced Estates
Betfred is not the only major bookmaker reducing its shop network.
Evoke closed around 200 William Hill locations during 2026, while other major operators have also been reviewing retail profitability.
Entain Has Also Raised Concerns
Entain recently warned about the possible financial effect of a substantial MGD increase.
The company estimated that such a change could add around £100 million a year to its operating costs.
That figure is also a corporate projection rather than an official estimate.
Potential Impact on Horse Racing
Done warned that weakening retail betting could also affect Britain’s horse-racing ecosystem.
Betfred currently sponsors all five British Classics, including the Epsom Derby.
The company has not yet agreed extensions to some sponsorship arrangements amid the tax uncertainty.
Illegal-Market Argument
Done also argues that reducing regulated betting provision could encourage some consumers to use unlicensed operators.
This is Betfred’s position within the wider regulatory and tax debate rather than an established government finding.
2030 Warning
The founder went further by suggesting that continued increases in taxes, wages and other costs could leave the UK with virtually no betting shops by 2030.
This is Done’s own projection and should not be treated as an independent forecast for the British retail market.
Industry Context
UK retail bookmakers are operating under substantial structural pressure.
Their businesses must absorb:
- Rising labour costs.
- Gambling taxation.
- Property costs.
- Consumer migration online.
- Regulatory restrictions.
- Changing machine economics.
The possibility of higher MGD adds another variable to that environment.
Next Steps and Impact
Attention will now focus on the government’s forthcoming fiscal decisions and whether any formal proposal to change Machine Games Duty emerges.
While the standard rate remains at 20%, the scenario presented by Betfred is hypothetical.
Nevertheless, Done’s comments illustrate growing concern among large retail operators that another major tax increase could accelerate shop closures, job losses and the structural contraction of Britain’s high-street betting market.
Editó: @fonta
