Online Betting Moves to the Centre of Brazil’s Election Campaign
Brazil.- 21 August 2026 | www.zonadeazar.com Online betting has emerged as a new focal point of Brazil’s 2026 election campaign, with candidates proposing measures ranging from tighter restrictions and higher taxation to a potential outright ban.
The debate comes little more than 18 months after Brazil’s federally regulated fixed-odds betting market came into force and reflects increasing political pressure on the sector.
However, the proposals differ significantly in their level of detail and, in several cases, remain campaign statements rather than approved policies.
Lula Again Raises Possible Ban
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who is seeking re-election, has once again publicly raised the possibility of ending regulated online betting if he does not see sufficient social justification for the market to continue.
He also acknowledged that such a move would face resistance in Congress.
The position contrasts with the regulatory process carried out under his own administration.
Lula’s government sanctioned Law 14,790/2023 and subsequently created the Secretariat of Prizes and Betting (SPA), under the Ministry of Finance, to regulate and supervise the federal market.
Government Programme Does Not Include a Ban
Despite Lula’s increasingly critical public comments, his government programme registered with Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court does not explicitly propose banning betting.
Instead, it calls for continued monitoring of gambling-related household debt and stronger measures designed to:
- Control excessive online betting expenditure.
- Increase consumer protection.
- Strengthen responses to gambling-related problems.
- Improve rules around credit and consumer protection.
There is therefore a distinction between the President’s tougher public rhetoric and the measures formally included in his election programme.
Flávio Bolsonaro Proposes Further Restrictions
Senator Flávio Bolsonaro has also included online betting within his presidential platform.
His programme proposes preventing welfare payments from being used for gambling and introducing educational campaigns about the risks of gambling-related debt.
However, the use of Bolsa Família and Benefício de Prestação Continuada (BPC) funds for betting is already restricted.
His campaign has not yet decided whether it will support a complete ban on online betting.
Zema and Renan Santos Back Prohibition
Romeu Zema and Renan Santos have taken more restrictive positions and openly supported banning betting operators.
Zema said he intends to prohibit betting operations through a provisional measure from the first day of a potential administration.
This represents one of the strongest anti-betting positions currently being presented in the presidential campaign.
Augusto Cury Calls for “Extremely High” Taxes
Augusto Cury has proposed a different approach.
The candidate supports imposing very high taxes on betting companies as a way of discouraging gambling activity.
He has not specified what rate or taxation structure he considers appropriate.
The idea therefore remains a broad political proposal rather than a defined tax policy.
Caiado Targets Advertising and Financial Flows
Ronaldo Caiado favours tighter controls over the sector without necessarily calling for a complete ban.
His proposals include:
- Restrictions on online betting advertising.
- Increased scrutiny of financial transactions.
- Tighter oversight of betting operators.
- Greater supervision of fintechs involved in gambling-related payments.
He has linked these measures to the social and financial harm he associates with the expansion of betting.
Debate Extends to São Paulo Election
Betting has also become an issue in the São Paulo gubernatorial race.
Fernando Haddad has said he opposes gambling and stated that, if elected, he would not issue state-level betting licences.
He also acknowledged that a state governor does not have the authority to ban online betting nationally.
Tarcísio de Freitas has adopted an equally critical tone and connected gambling expansion with public-health concerns.
He has also advocated specialised treatment for people experiencing gambling-related problems.
Public Opinion: Limited Electoral Impact So Far
A July survey conducted by More in Common together with Ipsos-Ipec suggests that candidates’ positions on betting still have limited influence on voting intentions.
The research found that:
- 58% said a politician’s stance on online betting would not affect their vote.
- 24% said they would be more inclined to support a candidate favouring restrictions.
- 18% primarily blamed the Lula government for the expansion of betting.
- 4% primarily blamed Jair Bolsonaro’s government.
- 33% believed both shared similar responsibility.
- 35% blamed neither.
The survey involved 2,000 people aged 16 or over across 130 municipalities, interviewed between 4 and 8 July, with a two-percentage-point margin of error.
Industry Context
Brazil has operated a federally regulated fixed-odds betting market since January 2025.
The framework followed several years of uncertainty after fixed-odds betting was legalised in 2018.
The 2026 election campaign now introduces a new layer of political uncertainty for licensed operators and investors.
Positions range from maintaining the system with tighter controls to significantly increasing taxation or reversing the regulated model altogether.
Next Steps or Impact
The remainder of the election campaign will determine whether the strongest anti-betting rhetoric develops into concrete legislative proposals.
For regulated operators, the main risk is a potential policy shift after the election, particularly regarding taxation, advertising and the long-term future of the market itself.
There is currently no approved federal decision to ban online betting.
However, the campaign demonstrates that betting has moved beyond a purely regulatory issue and become a significant topic within Brazil’s political debate.
Editó: @fonta
