Kalshi Expects New Rules and Major US League Deals
United States.- 3 September 2026 | www.zonadeazar.com Kalshi expects new regulatory rules and potential commercial agreements with major US sports leagues to strengthen its position amid mounting legal challenges surrounding sports prediction markets.
CEO and co-founder Tarek Mansour said the Commodity Futures Trading Commission could soon move forward with new provisions intended to clarify the treatment of sports-event contracts.
Ninth Circuit Setback
His comments follow a ruling by a three-judge Ninth Circuit panel determining that Kalshi’s sports contracts constitute sports betting.
Mansour acknowledged that the decision has increased legal uncertainty surrounding the company.
The ruling represents a significant challenge to Kalshi’s argument that its contracts are federally regulated financial products rather than wagers subject to individual state sports-betting regimes.
Rule 40.11 at Centre of Debate
A major element of the dispute concerns Rule 40.11 under the Commodity Exchange Act.
The provision allows the CFTC to consider whether certain contracts are contrary to the public interest where they involve activities including gaming.
Interpretation of the rule has become one of the central issues in litigation involving Kalshi.
CFTC Could Clarify Framework
Mansour said new rules could emerge within the next several weeks or months.
The CFTC has already proposed changes intended to provide greater clarity around sports-event contracts.
For Kalshi, a more explicit federal framework could provide additional support as it challenges action from state regulators and authorities.
Debate Over CFTC Authority
The proposed rules are also facing opposition.
Some critics argue that congressional action may be required to amend the Commodity Exchange Act sufficiently to expressly permit sports contracts.
The dispute therefore combines regulatory, legislative and judicial questions.
Major League Agreements
Kalshi also expects to announce further commercial agreements with one or two major US leagues.
Mansour indicated that announcements should come soon involving at least one of the two remaining major leagues with which the company does not already have a relationship.
Those leagues are the NBA and NFL.
NBA Appears Most Likely
The NBA currently appears to be the more likely candidate.
Commissioner Adam Silver has previously confirmed that the league has been holding discussions with prediction-market operators since March.
Those talks could lead to a framework allowing platforms to use official league data and integrity-monitoring systems similar to arrangements established elsewhere.
Data and Integrity Framework
A potential NBA agreement could include access to official league information and sports-integrity infrastructure.
Such a deal would represent another level of institutional recognition for sports prediction markets.
It could also strengthen Kalshi’s commercial position while the company continues defending its legal model in court.
NFL Remains More Cautious
The NFL has so far taken a more cautious approach to prediction markets.
The league has official sportsbook partnerships with DraftKings, FanDuel and Fanatics.
However, it has indicated that those relationships do not currently extend to prediction-market activities operated by some of the same companies.
Existing NHL Agreement
Kalshi already has a commercial relationship with the NHL.
That agreement gives the platform an association with one of the leading professional sports organisations in North America.
The company is now seeking to broaden its presence across additional major leagues.
MLB Franchise Deals
Kalshi also recently announced marketing agreements with five Major League Baseball franchises.
Those partnerships expand the company’s exposure within US professional sport.
The moves come as competing prediction-market platforms also seek commercial relationships with sports organisations.
Prediction Markets Expanding Across Sport
Prediction-market platforms are gaining greater visibility within the sporting ecosystem.
MLB and MLS have also entered into arrangements involving Polymarket.
These partnerships suggest growing acceptance among some sports organisations, even as the regulatory status of sports event contracts remains contested.
Trading or Betting?
A core part of Kalshi’s argument is that customers are trading rather than engaging in conventional wagering.
Mansour argues that users research sports, political, economic and weather outcomes before buying and selling contracts in an open market.
That interpretation has been challenged by courts, regulators and traditional sportsbook operators.
Kalshi Advertising Scrutinised
The Ninth Circuit ruling also referred to previous advertising used by Kalshi.
The company had marketed itself as an application offering legal sports betting across all 50 states.
Mansour said the word “betting” had been used colloquially and noted that the campaign is no longer active.
Sportsbook Criticism
Kalshi’s claim that its sports contracts are financial instruments has drawn strong criticism from traditional sports-betting operators.
Sportsbook executives argue that customers are staking money on uncertain sporting outcomes and that, functionally, the activity is gambling.
The dispute also has tax and regulatory implications because the two models operate under different frameworks.
Potential Supreme Court Decision
Mansour believes the issue may ultimately require a US Supreme Court ruling.
The central legal question concerns the extent of federal CFTC authority and when individual states can enforce their gambling laws.
Until that question is resolved, Kalshi is likely to continue facing different legal conditions across jurisdictions.
Industry Context
Sports prediction markets have become one of the most significant regulatory flashpoints in the US gaming sector during 2026.
Their growth increasingly places them in competition with conventional sportsbooks, while they continue to operate within a federal derivatives-market framework.
CFTC rules, court decisions and commercial agreements with sports leagues will all be critical in determining the segment’s future.
Next Steps or Impact
Kalshi expects greater regulatory clarity and additional league partnerships in the coming weeks.
A potential NBA agreement would represent a significant commercial step for the company within US professional sport.
However, the core challenge remains legal: whether its sports contracts can continue operating as federally regulated instruments or must comply with individual state sports-betting laws.
Editó: @fonta
