Malta Considers Fitting Prediction Markets Into Existing Licences
Malta.- 8 September 2026 | www.zonadeazar.com The Malta Gaming Authority is assessing how prediction markets could fit within the country’s existing regulatory framework.
According to the authority, certain products may already fall under established licensing categories, potentially reducing the need to create an entirely separate regulatory regime from scratch.
Type 2 and Type 3 Licences
Classification will depend on the specific structure of each product.
Prediction markets could potentially fall under:
- Type 2 licences, covering fixed-odds betting.
- Type 3 licences, covering peer-to-peer betting and exchange-based models.
The MGA considers the commercial and operational characteristics of each platform essential in determining the appropriate regulatory treatment.
No Automatic Need for a New Regime
The debate does not necessarily require creation of an entirely new licensing category.
The authority is assessing whether the current framework can accommodate these models through clarification, additional guidance or targeted amendments.
The objective is to build on an established system while maintaining a proportionate approach to innovation.
Different Product Structures
Prediction markets can operate through several models.
Some platforms use event contracts priced in a way that resembles fixed odds, while others operate through exchange structures in which participants take positions against one another.
These differences can substantially affect their legal classification.
Interaction With Financial Services
One of the main regulatory challenges emerges when certain event contracts exhibit characteristics usually associated with financial instruments.
The MGA is therefore examining the relationship between:
- Gambling regulation.
- Financial-services legislation.
- Contract characteristics.
- User participation models.
This interaction may require specific assessment depending on the product concerned.
Greater Legal Certainty
The authority is considering whether further guidance could provide greater clarity and consistency.
The aim would be to increase legal certainty for both operators and participants while reducing conflicting interpretations of products that can sit between different regulatory categories.
Innovation Within Malta’s Framework
Malta wants to maintain a system capable of accommodating:
- Technological innovation.
- New products.
- Evolving business models.
- New forms of user participation.
At the same time, the MGA intends to preserve strict requirements around compliance, participant protection and market integrity.
Political Debate in Malta
Prediction-market regulation also featured in discussions ahead of Malta’s 2026 general election.
The governing party expressed interest in Malta establishing a regulatory precedent for the vertical in Europe.
This is particularly significant given Malta’s position as one of the region’s leading international iGaming hubs.
Potential European Influence
Any Maltese decision could have implications beyond the domestic market.
The jurisdiction hosts a substantial number of international operators and plays an influential role within European gaming.
A clear regulatory model could therefore provide a reference point for other jurisdictions currently considering how to classify prediction-market platforms.
Gibraltar as a Reference Point
Gibraltar adopted a different approach during 2026.
In July, it introduced a dedicated framework for prediction markets, creating a specific licensing category for these products.
Malta could offer an alternative model by adapting existing licences rather than establishing a completely separate regulatory structure.
Product-by-Product Assessment
The MGA does not consider that every prediction market must necessarily receive identical treatment.
Classification may depend on factors including:
- Product design.
- Type of underlying event.
- Relationship between participants.
- Pricing mechanism.
- Risk retained by the operator.
- Potential connection with financial instruments.
This approach requires each model to be assessed according to its specific characteristics.
Artificial Intelligence Also a Priority
The MGA is also working on other areas linked to technological development.
These include a future Artificial Intelligence Gaming Charter.
The initiative is expected to be voluntary and is intended to promote responsible and ethical use of AI within the gaming industry.
Wider Regulatory Reforms
The authority has also completed a targeted consultation concerning proposed changes to its Recognition Notice framework.
The reforms are intended to strengthen assessments during the authorisation stage and establish more structured and proportionate ongoing monitoring.
Further information is expected during 2026.
Industry Context
Prediction markets have become one of the most significant regulatory questions facing the international gaming sector.
While some jurisdictions are blocking platforms on the grounds that they provide unlicensed gambling, others are exploring dedicated frameworks or possible classification within existing licensing systems.
The issue becomes particularly complex when event contracts resemble financial products.
Next Steps or Impact
The Malta Gaming Authority will continue assessing whether Type 2 and Type 3 licences can provide a sufficient basis for supervising certain prediction-market models.
It will also consider whether additional clarification is required around the interaction between gambling regulation and financial-services law.
Greater regulatory certainty could facilitate licensed development of the vertical in Malta and position the jurisdiction as another European reference point for prediction markets.
Editó: @fonta
