AGA Forecasts Flat NFL Betting as Prediction Markets Expand
United States.- 9 September 2026 | www.zonadeazar.com The American Gaming Association (AGA) expects Americans to legally wager approximately US$29.5 billion on the 2026 NFL season through regulated commercial sportsbooks.
The forecast represents virtually no growth compared with the US$29.4 billion wagered during the previous season.
The association links the slowdown partly to the rapidly expanding presence of prediction markets in US sports.
Virtually Flat Year-on-Year Growth
The difference between the two seasons amounts to only US$100 million.
This contrasts with the strong expansion experienced by regulated sports betting in the United States since the Supreme Court struck down the federal prohibition in 2018.
According to the AGA, growth in legal betting handle has slowed significantly over the past year.
Prediction Markets Gain Ground
The organisation attributes part of the slowdown to prediction-market platforms offering contracts tied to sporting outcomes.
These products have expanded rapidly nationwide and increasingly compete for spending that would traditionally have been directed towards state- and tribal-regulated sportsbooks.
The AGA believes this expansion is changing the competitive dynamics of the US market.
Sport Represents Most of Kalshi Volume
According to figures cited by the association, sports-related activity accounts for approximately 80% of Kalshi’s volume.
The figure demonstrates how central sports content has become to some prediction-market platforms.
Given its scale and audience, the NFL is one of the most significant areas for this activity.
Regulatory Differences
The AGA stresses that conventional sportsbooks operate under regulatory frameworks established by states and Tribal governments.
Prediction-market platforms, meanwhile, maintain that their event contracts fall under federal jurisdiction and therefore do not need to comply with the same state sports-betting rules.
This distinction is at the centre of a growing regulatory dispute in the United States.
Sports Betting Legal in 40 Jurisdictions
Sports betting is currently legal and regulated across 40 US jurisdictions.
The AGA argues that prediction markets can offer sports contracts even in states whose governments have chosen not to legalise conventional sports wagering.
That situation has intensified disputes involving platforms, state regulators and gaming-industry stakeholders.
Concerns Over Younger Users
The association also highlighted participation among younger customers.
Its estimates indicate that approximately US$5.1 billion of Kalshi volume comes from users aged between 18 and 20.
That age group falls below the legal sports-betting age in 35 of the 40 jurisdictions where the activity is regulated.
Statements
American Gaming Association President and CEO Bill Miller said regulated sports betting had experienced substantial growth since 2018 but argued that the environment began to change following the nationwide expansion of sports-focused prediction markets.
He said these platforms compete with regulated sportsbooks without operating under the same state and Tribal requirements.
Miller also questioned the marketing of sports event contracts as investments and highlighted differences in consumer protection, oversight and regulatory accountability.
Scope of the Forecast
The US$29.5 billion estimate covers wagering across the entire NFL season.
It includes:
- Preseason games.
- Futures booked from March onwards.
- Regular-season games.
- Playoffs.
- Super Bowl LXI.
The methodology applies national betting-handle growth recorded during 2026 to last season’s estimated NFL total while also using football-specific reporting from selected states.
Maturing Legal Market
The AGA also acknowledges that the regulated US sports-betting industry is becoming more mature.
After years of new state launches and rapid expansion, percentage growth would naturally be expected to moderate.
However, the association argues that the rapid growth of sports prediction markets is accelerating that slowdown.
New Competition for Sportsbooks
The expansion of sports event contracts creates a new competitive environment for conventional operators.
For many consumers, prediction-market contracts can provide an economic experience comparable with certain forms of sports wagering.
This creates challenges for sportsbooks operating under licensing regimes, state taxation and specific Responsible Gambling obligations.
Industry Context
Prediction markets have become one of the most significant regulatory issues facing the US gaming industry in 2026.
Companies including Kalshi and Polymarket have rapidly increased their sports presence while multiple states challenge whether sports event contracts should be treated as federally regulated financial products or gambling governed by state law.
Their growth has also intensified debate around taxation, underage participation, Responsible Gambling and the division of authority between federal and state regulators.
Next Steps or Impact
The 2026 NFL season will provide an important test of how significantly prediction markets are changing the distribution of sports-wagering spend.
The AGA expects approximately US$29.5 billion in handle through regulated commercial sportsbooks, virtually unchanged from the previous year.
The performance of platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket, together with ongoing regulatory disputes, will therefore be among the key developments to follow throughout the season.
Editó: @fonta
