Polymarket and Kalshi Show Minimal Gaps Across Prediction Markets
United States.- 14 October 2026 | www.zonadeazar.com A comparative analysis of Polymarket and Kalshi, two major prediction market platforms, reveals that prices for equivalent outcomes generally show relatively small differences.
The study, updated on 13 October 2026, examined 202 outcomes available on both exchanges and identified an average difference of just 0.9 percentage points.
The findings indicate substantial price convergence between the two platforms, although notable discrepancies remain across certain political, economic and sporting markets.
Comparison of 202 Outcomes
The analysis covered contracts linked to elections, Federal Reserve decisions, sporting events and economic developments.
The main findings included:
- 202 outcomes compared across both platforms.
- 0.9 percentage points average price difference.
- 0.7 points median difference.
- 95% of outcomes showing gaps of no more than 2 points.
- 100% of outcomes showing gaps of up to 5 points, according to the published statistical summary.
Among 68 competitive outcomes, defined as contracts priced between 10% and 90% on both exchanges, the average difference increased to 1.2 points.
Price Differences by Market Category
Price discrepancies varied across the categories examined.
The report identified the following average differences:
- Economy and business: 2.3 percentage points.
- Presidential elections: 2.2 points.
- Federal Reserve decisions: 0.8 points.
- Governor elections: 0.9 points.
- Senate elections: 0.8 points.
- Sports: 0.7 points.
Sports contracts recorded some of the closest pricing across the two platforms, while economic and electoral markets displayed wider differences.
2028 US Presidential Election
One of the largest individual discrepancies concerned the market predicting which party would win the 2028 United States presidential election.
For a Republican victory, the recorded prices were:
- Polymarket: 34.5%.
- Kalshi: 41.5%.
- Difference: 7 percentage points.
For a Democratic victory, Polymarket recorded 63.5%, compared with 58.5% on Kalshi.
These figures represent contract prices at the time of measurement rather than definitive electoral forecasts.
Economy and Recession Expectations
Another market showing a notable difference concerned the possibility of a US recession before the end of 2026.
The analysis recorded:
- Polymarket: 7.5%.
- Kalshi: 3.5%.
- Difference: 4 percentage points.
However, the settlement conditions of the two contracts are not entirely equivalent.
Polymarket incorporates additional criteria for determining whether a recession has occurred, while Kalshi applies a more specific definition based on official economic growth figures.
Consequently, part of the price difference may reflect different settlement rules rather than opposing market expectations.
Sports Markets Show Greater Price Convergence
Sports prediction markets recorded an average difference of just 0.7 percentage points between the two exchanges.
One example involved the market for the 2027 NBA champion.
For Oklahoma City Thunder, the recorded prices were:
- Polymarket: 19.5%.
- Kalshi: 22.5%.
The three-point difference illustrates how individual discrepancies can emerge even within categories that generally display strong price convergence.
Why Do Price Differences Occur?
Although Polymarket and Kalshi offer contracts covering similar events, the platforms operate through independent trading systems.
Several factors contribute to price discrepancies:
- Different participants and liquidity levels.
- Trading fees and transaction costs.
- Bid-ask spreads.
- Contract-specific settlement conditions.
- Market access restrictions and fund transfer limitations.
These differences can result in the same event being priced differently across the two exchanges.
Arbitrage Opportunities and Limitations
Price discrepancies can attract traders interested in arbitrage strategies.
Broadly speaking, these strategies involve acquiring complementary positions across different platforms when the combined prices offer a potential financial advantage.
However, a percentage-point difference does not automatically guarantee a profit.
Trading fees, actual execution prices, liquidity and identical settlement conditions must all be considered when evaluating potential opportunities.
Study Methodology
The comparison uses published Polymarket outcome prices and the midpoint between the best available bid and ask prices on Kalshi.
Where Kalshi’s order book is one-sided, the analysis uses the most recent transaction price.
The gap is calculated by subtracting the Kalshi price from the Polymarket price, expressed in percentage points before fees.
The dataset is refreshed twice daily, meaning the figures may change as trading activity develops.
The independent website conducting the research is not officially affiliated with either platform.
Next Steps and Impact
The study demonstrates that Polymarket and Kalshi generally show strong price convergence, particularly across sports markets and monetary policy decisions.
However, individual discrepancies also highlight market fragmentation and the importance of understanding each platform’s contract specifications.
As prediction markets continue expanding, comparative pricing data may become increasingly relevant for assessing liquidity, price discovery and potential arbitrage opportunities.
Monitoring these differences over time could provide further insight into how both exchanges respond to economic, political and sporting developments.
Editó: @fonta
