Polymarket and Kalshi: 92% of Outcomes Differ by Two Points or Less
United States.- 20 October 2026 | www.zonadeazar.com A new comparison of Polymarket and Kalshi, two major prediction market platforms, reveals relatively small differences between their contract prices, although discrepancies remain across certain categories.
According to figures updated on 19 October 2026, the study examined 201 outcomes available on both platforms, identifying an average difference of just 1 percentage point.
Additionally, 92% of outcomes were within two percentage points, while all were within five points, according to the report’s aggregated statistics.
Key Findings
The analysis compares contracts covering elections, sports, economic developments and US monetary policy decisions.
The main findings include:
- 201 outcomes compared across both platforms.
- 1 percentage point average difference.
- 0.8 percentage points median difference.
- 92% of outcomes within two points.
- 66 competitive outcomes, with prices between 10% and 90% on both exchanges.
- 1.3 points average difference among those competitive outcomes.
Price gaps vary depending on the category.
Economic and business markets recorded an average difference of 2.3 points, while general election contracts showed an average gap of 2.1 points.
In sports, the average difference was 0.9 points, similar to the figure recorded for US gubernatorial elections.
Elections and Sports Show Notable Gaps
One of the largest discrepancies concerned the market predicting which political party would win the 2028 US presidential election.
For a Republican victory, Polymarket displayed 34.5% compared with Kalshi’s 40.5%, representing a six-percentage-point gap.
In the market for the 2027 Champions League winner, Barcelona was priced at 23.5% on Polymarket and 27.5% on Kalshi.
Contracts concerning the 2027 NBA championship also displayed differences between the two exchanges.
These figures represent market prices at a particular point in time and should not be interpreted as confirmed election or sporting outcomes.
Why Do Prediction Market Prices Differ?
Although both platforms enable trading on future events, their prices do not always match.
Several factors explain these differences:
- Different traders and liquidity conditions.
- Trading fees and transaction costs.
- Contract settlement rules.
- Different resolution mechanisms.
- Operational and regulatory restrictions.
The report also examines arbitrage opportunities arising when equivalent contracts trade at different prices.
However, such opportunities do not guarantee profits. Fees, bid-ask spreads and differences in settlement conditions can eliminate apparent pricing advantages.
Next Steps and Impact
The study provides a useful perspective on price formation across prediction markets and the similarities between expectations reflected on different exchanges.
The comparison is updated twice daily, with downloadable datasets available in CSV and JSON formats.
The findings indicate broad alignment between Polymarket and Kalshi, although certain categories continue to display noteworthy differences.
For the gaming and prediction markets industries, monitoring these variations offers insights into liquidity, competition and the evolving pricing of event-based contracts.
Editó: @fonta
