Prediction Markets Surpass US$107.5 Billion in 30-Day Trading Volume

United States.- 23 October 2026 | www.zonadeazar.com Prediction markets recorded US$107.5 billion in contracts traded over the past 30 days, according to figures published by DeFi Rate on 22 October 2026.

The report, covering nine platforms, highlights Kalshi’s dominant position, accounting for 76% of total volume, alongside significant growth at Polymarket US, DraftKings Predictions and Novig.

The figures reflect increasing activity in contracts linked to sporting events, cryptocurrencies and economic developments.

Kalshi Accounts for 76% of Total Volume

The analysis covers 22 September to 21 October 2026.

Key results include:

  • Kalshi: US$81.5 billion, representing a 75.9% market share.
  • Polymarket US: US$12.7 billion, accounting for 11.8%.
  • International Polymarket: US$4.5 billion, representing 4.2%.
  • DraftKings Predictions: US$3.3 billion, accounting for 3.1%.
  • Novig: US$2.5 billion, representing 2.3%.
  • Underdog Exchange: US$1.4 billion, accounting for 1.3%.

The report also includes trading activity from Rothera, ProphetX and Gemini.

Kalshi’s trading volume increased 53% compared with the previous 30-day period, while Polymarket US recorded 99% growth.

Sports and Cryptocurrency Drive Market Activity

The research identifies sports as the leading trading category, followed by cryptocurrency-related contracts.

According to DeFi Rate, 67% of the money actually spent on single-outcome contracts was directed towards sports markets.

Cryptocurrency accounted for 27%, while financial markets represented approximately 3%.

American football has become particularly important, with trading activity increasing significantly during weekends.

Sunday, 18 October was the busiest day of the preceding 60 days, with US$6.1 billion in contracts traded.

Notional Volume Versus Money Actually Spent

One of the report’s most important distinctions concerns its measurement methodology.

The US$107.5 billion figure represents the face value of contracts traded, calculated at one US dollar per contract.

However, the amount actually paid by traders during the period was approximately US$26.6 billion.

For example, a contract purchased for US$0.20 contributes one dollar to notional trading volume, even though the actual transaction involves only twenty cents.

This distinction is essential when interpreting industry statistics and comparing different trading platforms.

Emerging Operators Record Strong Growth

The study also highlights expansion among several additional prediction market operators.

During the latest 30-day period:

  • Underdog Exchange increased volume by 133%.
  • Novig recorded 119% growth.
  • DraftKings Predictions increased by 117%.
  • Polymarket US grew by 99%.
  • Kalshi recorded 53% growth.

By contrast, international Polymarket experienced an 8% decline.

These changes refer to comparable reporting periods, subject to the availability of each platform’s historical data.

Next Steps and Industry Impact

The expansion of prediction markets reflects their growing presence within the sports betting ecosystem and the wider market for financial products linked to future events.

This development also raises questions concerning regulatory oversight, data transparency and consistent trading volume measurements.

For the iGaming industry, DeFi Rate’s findings highlight the emergence of new competitors and the central role of sports-related contracts in driving activity.

Distinguishing between notional trading volume and actual expenditure will remain essential when evaluating the industry’s economic scale.

Editó: @fonta

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