Brazil Could Lose US$3.58 Billion in Public Funding After Gambling Ban
Brazil.- 23 October 2026 | www.zonadeazar.com Brazil’s prohibition of online sports betting and casino gaming could result in the loss of up to US$3.58 billion in transfers to public agencies and federal funds by December 2029.
The estimate comes from a study conducted by BNLData, using National Treasury information obtained through Brazil’s Access to Information Law.
The report examines the consequences of Provisional Measure No. 1,394/2026, published on 25 September, which ended the operations of the country’s regulated betting market, established in 2025.
Two Scenarios for Public Revenue Losses
According to the analysis, Brazil’s regulated betting industry generated approximately US$1.32 billion in contributions to beneficiaries designated under gambling legislation during its first 17 months of effective revenue collection.
Based on these figures, BNLData developed two scenarios:
- US$3.2 billion: projected losses between October 2026 and December 2029 if the previous average collection rate had continued.
- US$3.58 billion: estimated losses when incorporating tax rate increases already scheduled for 2027 and 2028.
The projections consider that operators’ original authorisations were scheduled to remain valid until December 2029.
Sport, Tourism and Public Security Among the Affected Sectors
Revenue collected from regulated betting operations previously supported various public programmes and government organisations.
Key beneficiaries included:
- Sport: development programmes and sporting infrastructure.
- Tourism: promotional initiatives and industry development.
- Public security: federal agencies and funds supporting crime prevention and enforcement.
During the first half of 2026, betting operators generated US$493 million in net revenue allocated for statutory distribution.
Of this amount, sport received approximately US$85 million, while public security received US$68 million, including transfers to the National Public Security Fund and Federal Police.
National Public Security Fund Faces Potential Funding Gap
One of the organisations potentially affected is Brazil’s National Public Security Fund, which received approximately US$100 million from betting-related contributions during 2025.
The interruption of these transfers could require the Government to reconsider the financing of several public programmes.
The eventual impact will depend on future budgetary decisions and whether alternative sources of public revenue replace the discontinued funding.
Federal Tax Revenue Exceeded US$1.98 Billion
The report emphasises that its projected losses cover only transfers distributed under Brazil’s specific gambling legislation.
They do not include other federal taxes paid by operators or income tax collected on players’ winnings.
According to Federal Revenue Service data, betting companies contributed approximately US$1.98 billion in federal taxes during 2025.
These contributions included:
- Corporate Income Tax (IRPJ).
- Social Contribution on Net Profit (CSLL).
- PIS/Cofins contributions.
- Social security contributions.
During the first eight months of 2026, federal tax collection associated with the industry reached US$1.97 billion, representing 69.25% growth compared with the same period in 2025.
Forecasts Exclude Future Market Growth
BNLData clarified that its calculations are based on the revenue collection rate observed before the prohibition.
The analysis does not account for potential market growth through December 2029 or revenue generated through regulatory supervision fees.
Consequently, the US$3.58 billion figure represents a projection rather than a confirmed fiscal loss.
The eventual impact will depend on regulatory developments, government decisions and possible changes to Brazil’s legal framework.
Industry Impact and Next Steps
Brazil’s gambling prohibition continues to generate debate about its economic and social consequences.
While authorities prioritise measures intended to prevent gambling-related harm, industry analyses have highlighted the interruption of funding previously allocated to public programmes.
For the iGaming industry, BNLData’s study adds further evidence to discussions concerning taxation, regulated market sustainability and public policy funding.
Future developments in Brazil’s gambling legislation will determine the ultimate scale of the projected revenue losses.
Editó: @fonta
