Macau Could Reach US$29.2 Billion in Gaming Revenue in 2026

China.- 28 October 2026 | www.zonadeazar.com Macau’s casino industry remains capable of achieving its MOP236 billion (US$29.2 billion) gross gaming revenue (GGR) target for 2026, according to financial research firm CreditSights.

Despite four consecutive months of year-on-year revenue declines, analysts believe the recent weaker results do not necessarily indicate structural deterioration in market demand.

October’s performance will be particularly important in assessing the outlook for the final quarter of the year.

Macau Achieves 79% of Annual Revenue Target

During the first nine months of 2026, Macau’s casinos generated approximately MOP187.12 billion (US$23.1 billion) in gross gaming revenue.

The figure represents a 3.2% year-on-year increase and accounts for 79% of the government’s annual target.

Key indicators include:

  • Annual revenue target: MOP236 billion.
  • Revenue accumulated through September: MOP187.12 billion.
  • Year-on-year growth: 3.2%.
  • Target achieved: 79%.
  • Average monthly revenue: MOP20.8 billion.

The average monthly revenue recorded through September exceeds the MOP19.7 billion implied by the full-year target.

Final Quarter Requires MOP16.3 Billion Per Month

CreditSights estimates that Macau will need to generate approximately MOP16.3 billion in monthly GGR between October and December to achieve the government’s forecast.

This requirement remains below the average monthly revenue recorded during the first nine months of the year.

CreditSights analysts Nicholas Chen and David Bussey indicated that there is still scope for Macau to meet its 2026 revenue objective.

However, October’s results will provide a clearer indication of whether the market can maintain sufficient momentum.

Four Consecutive Months of Revenue Declines

The gaming industry recorded four consecutive months of year-on-year GGR declines through September.

Nevertheless, CreditSights believes it is premature to interpret this trend as evidence of structural market weakness.

The analysts identified several contributing factors:

  • June and July: performance primarily affected by the FIFA World Cup.
  • August and September: relatively modest year-on-year declines of approximately 1%.
  • Final quarter: potential recovery supported by seasonal tourism and stronger visitor numbers.

The firm suggested that recent fluctuations may reflect cyclical rather than structural factors.

October Becomes Critical for Market Forecasts

Macau Chief Executive Sam Hou Fai previously confirmed that the government has no plans to revise its annual gaming revenue forecast.

Authorities regard October as a particularly important period for evaluating market performance.

Increased tourism during October’s Golden Week holiday, one of China’s most important travel periods, could support casino activity.

The key question is whether stronger visitor traffic will translate into higher gaming revenue.

Sands China Expects Stronger Fourth-Quarter Performance

CreditSights also highlighted the more optimistic outlook expressed by Sands China management.

The operator expects the final quarter to benefit from seasonal factors and increased tourism activity.

Relevant developments include:

  • The Golden Week holiday period.
  • The NBA China Games held in Macau.
  • Increased visitor traffic across integrated casino resorts.

Patrick Dumont, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Las Vegas Sands, Sands China’s parent company, described the group’s third-quarter performance as unusual due to softer high-end gaming activity.

Meanwhile, Sands China Chief Executive and President Grant Chum Kwan Lock emphasised that underlying demand remains solid, supported by increasing customer numbers and property visits.

Mass-Market Revenue Declines by 5.2%

Third-quarter results revealed significant differences between Macau’s gaming segments.

According to CreditSights:

  • VIP gaming: revenue remained broadly unchanged year-on-year.
  • Mass-market gaming: revenue declined by 5.2%.
  • Mass-market contribution: 71.9% of total quarterly GGR.

The performance of the mass-market segment remains particularly important because of its substantial contribution to overall casino revenue.

These indicators suggest that tourism growth does not necessarily translate into proportional increases in gaming activity.

Visitor Numbers Rise as Revenue Per Visitor Falls

Macau recorded a year-on-year increase of approximately 16% in visitor arrivals during September.

However, gross gaming revenue per visitor declined by 15% to MOP5,616.

This divergence highlights one of the market’s main challenges: attracting additional tourists does not automatically generate equivalent growth in casino revenue.

CreditSights clarified that GGR per visitor is a statistical proxy rather than a direct measure of actual individual gambling expenditure.

Tourism Remains a Key Market Driver

The research firm expects Macau’s casino performance to remain largely dependent on visitor volumes.

However, achieving a meaningful recovery in gaming expenditure per visitor is likely to remain challenging.

Higher tourist traffic, evolving consumer behaviour and uneven performance across gaming segments could influence results over the coming months.

Outlook for the End of 2026

Macau remains in a position to achieve US$29.2 billion in annual gross gaming revenue, despite the slowdown recorded since June.

Meeting the target will depend particularly on October’s results and demand trends during November and December.

CreditSights’ assessment suggests that stronger visitor numbers and seasonal recovery could offset recent weakness.

Nevertheless, declining revenue per visitor and weaker mass-market performance will remain important indicators when assessing the outlook for Macau’s casino industry.

Edited by: @fonta

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