Brazil: Lula Banned Bets, but Congress Still Has the Final Say
Brazil – 27 September 2026 – www.zonadeazar.com – The ban on fixed-odds betting introduced by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s government through Provisional Measure No. 1,394/2026 has opened a scenario that goes far beyond the immediate shutdown of Brazil’s regulated betting market.
The measure has already begun to produce effects, but its definitive future will depend on the National Congress.
And there is another factor that could prove decisive: Brazil will hold elections on 4 October, and the new Congress will take office on 1 February 2027.
This means that while the Government moves forward with the implementation of the ban, another race is taking place simultaneously: the constitutional clock governing Provisional Measure 1,394.
An Immediate Ban, but Not Yet a Definitive One
Provisional Measure No. 1,394 was published on 25 September 2026 and took immediate legal effect.
However, a Provisional Measure is not the same as legislation definitively approved by Congress.
Under the Brazilian Constitution, a Provisional Measure initially remains valid for 60 days, with a single possible extension for a further 60 days if its consideration by Congress has not been completed.
For MP 1,394, the National Congress currently lists 23 November 2026 as the end of the initial 60-day period.
A second period of validity may then begin.
But there is a crucial element: the constitutional countdown is suspended during the parliamentary recess.
Therefore, it would be incorrect simply to add 120 days to 25 September and conclude that everything must necessarily end in January.
The Elections Could Change the Political Landscape
On 4 October 2026, Brazil will elect all 513 members of the Chamber of Deputies and renew 54 of the 81 seats in the Federal Senate.
Those elected will take office on 1 February 2027.
This creates a particularly significant situation.
The Congress currently considering the betting ban will not necessarily have the same political composition four months from now.
President Lula’s PT does not hold an outright majority in the Chamber or Senate. Consequently, the Government needs support from other political forces to convert the Provisional Measure definitively into law.
But the elections could change that balance of power.
Could the Betting Ban Reach the New Congress?
Yes, that is legally possible, depending on how the measure progresses through Congress, whether its validity is extended and how many days remain when the parliamentary recess begins.
The suspension of the constitutional countdown during the recess creates the possibility that a Provisional Measure issued in September could still be in force when the new legislative period begins.
That makes 1 February 2027 a potentially important date for the future of Brazil’s betting market.
This does not mean that this scenario will necessarily occur. The current Congress could settle the matter beforehand.
But neither can it be assumed that today’s parliamentary composition will necessarily be the one that makes every final decision concerning the ban.
Four Possible Scenarios
1. Congress approves the Provisional Measure.
The ban moves towards legislative consolidation through its conversion into law.
2. Congress changes the text.
Deputies and senators may amend the proposal and approve a conversion bill, which would then proceed through the corresponding presidential sanction or veto process.
3. Congress rejects the Provisional Measure.
The measure loses its effectiveness, and the legal consequences generated while it was in force must subsequently be addressed.
4. Congress fails to reach a decision within the constitutional deadline.
If the maximum period expires without the measure being converted into law, the MP loses its effectiveness due to the expiry of its constitutional term.
120 Days That Could Change Congress
Between late September and February, the composition of Brazil’s Legislative Branch could change substantially.
Every seat in the Chamber of Deputies is being contested, while two-thirds of the Senate is being renewed.
For this reason, any analysis that automatically projects today’s balance of political forces into 2027 should be treated with caution.
The October election results will determine how many representatives from each political force will occupy seats from 1 February onwards.
What cannot be stated in advance is how that future Congress would vote on the betting ban.
The Big Question Is No Longer Only What Lula Decided
MP 1,394 has produced an immediate and profound change in the market.
But the institutional story is not over.
Will the current Congress convert the ban into law?
Will it amend the Government’s proposal?
Will it reject it?
Will it allow the constitutional deadlines to expire?
Or could the final decision over the future of betting in Brazil reach the new Congress taking office on 1 February 2027?
The coming weeks will be decisive.
Because while betting platforms face the immediate consequences of the ban and Brazil prepares to vote, another clock is already ticking in Brasília: the constitutional clock of Provisional Measure 1,394.
Zona de Azar® will continue to follow its progress and analyse every development in the National Congress.
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