Kalshi and Polymarket: Over 60% of Users Are Under 35
United States.- 6 November 2026 | www.zonadeazar.com Prediction markets continue gaining popularity among young American adults, who are using platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket to speculate on sporting, political and economic events.
According to a recent S&P Global Market Intelligence Kagan survey, more than 60% of users on these platforms are under the age of 35, with sports representing the most popular category.
The trend reflects changing attitudes among younger generations towards financial risk, technology and alternative investment opportunities.
Generation Z Drives Prediction Market Adoption
Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell contracts linked to future outcomes, ranging from sporting events to elections and weather conditions.
Contract prices reflect the probabilities assigned to different outcomes by market participants.
The model appeals to younger adults interested in applying their knowledge of specific subjects to identify potential trading opportunities.
However, financial specialists warn that these products involve significant risks and should not be confused with conventional long-term investment strategies.
Kalshi User Combines Meteorology and AI
One example of this trend is Thomas Carvo, a 28-year-old resident of Georgia.
Carvo began using Kalshi during the 2024 US presidential election, placing $700 on an election-related contract and earning approximately $500 in profit.
He now primarily trades contracts linked to NFL games, college football and weather events.
His educational background in meteorology helps him assess specialised information when evaluating weather-related outcomes.
Artificial Intelligence Supports Trading Strategies
Carvo is also developing a tool powered by Claude, an artificial intelligence system he uses to analyse American football games.
The programme examines data and price movements to identify patterns that may recur during sporting events.
His objective is to establish whether particular strategies produce sufficiently consistent results before increasing the size of his trades.
The case illustrates how some prediction market participants are introducing automated analysis into their trading decisions.
Profits Do Not Eliminate Risk
Despite his early successes, Carvo has also experienced substantial losses.
During trading activity linked to the FIFA World Cup, he lost approximately $450 after taking on more risk than usual.
He explained that even outcomes considered highly probable can produce unexpected results.
His experience highlights that favourable probabilities do not guarantee profits and that participants can lose their entire stake on individual contracts.
Young Adults Seek Additional Income
For some participants, prediction markets represent a side activity rather than a conventional investment strategy.
Their appeal lies in the opportunity to apply specialist knowledge, interpret data and potentially generate returns over relatively short periods.
However, this perception can also encourage unrealistic expectations about how easily profits can be achieved.
Financial specialists warn that successful trades promoted on social media do not necessarily reflect the experience of most participants.
Financial Advisers Recommend Caution
Ciano Villaquiran, a certified financial planner at CURO Financial Planning, warned that prediction markets may appeal to young adults seeking rapid financial gains.
He suggested that participants should only commit small amounts of money they can comfortably afford to lose.
Villaquiran also emphasised that artificial intelligence cannot eliminate the possibility of financial losses.
He believes financial stability should first be established through saving, debt reduction and long-term planning.
Saving and Diversification Remain Priorities
Villaquiran recommended focusing on several financial objectives before allocating money to speculative products:
- Building an emergency fund.
- Reducing personal debt.
- Maintaining accessible savings.
- Contributing towards retirement.
- Diversifying long-term investments.
He highlighted the importance of compound growth for people beginning to save in their twenties and thirties.
Unlike speculative trading, these strategies are designed to support the gradual accumulation of wealth.
Industry Impact and Next Steps
The popularity of Kalshi and Polymarket among people under 35 highlights the emergence of new forms of participation in financial markets.
The combination of event contracts, data analysis and artificial intelligence is influencing how some young adults approach financial opportunities.
With more than 60% of their users under 35 and sports representing the leading category, prediction markets are consolidating their appeal among younger generations, although experts warn that they are not a safe substitute for conventional investment strategies.
The sector’s continued development will raise important questions about risk disclosure, financial education and consumer protection.
Edited by: @fonta
