IG Group Lowers 2026 Outlook as Underdog More Than Doubles Revenue
United Kingdom.- 8 October 2026 | www.zonadeazar.com IG Group has lowered its 2026 revenue growth outlook after forecasting an approximately 14% decline in third-quarter revenue.
The update contrasts sharply with strong growth at Underdog, the US daily fantasy sports and prediction markets company IG has agreed to acquire in a deal worth up to approximately $1.3 billion.
Revenue of Around £240 Million
IG expects to report approximately £240 million in total revenue for Q3 2026.
That compares with £280.1 million in the same period a year earlier.
Net trading revenue is expected to reach around £210 million, down from £249.5 million.
Lower OTC Retention
The group attributed much of the decline to lower revenue retention across its over-the-counter derivatives business.
Retention stood at around 70% during the quarter, below the approximately 80% average recorded since IG introduced market-making changes during the second half of 2025.
More Moderate Full-Year Outlook
Following the quarter, IG now expects total 2026 revenue growth in the mid-single-digit percentage range.
The group had previously said it expected full-year performance to remain in line with market expectations.
EBITDA Margin in the Low 40s
Excluding exceptional costs and expenses associated with the Underdog acquisition, IG expects its 2026 EBITDA margin to remain in the low 40% range.
The company also expects approximately £30 million in non-recurring costs during the year.
Restructuring and New Holding Company
Those costs include expenditure related to IG’s organisational restructuring and its proposal to establish a new group holding company in Jersey.
IG says the structure will provide greater financial and strategic flexibility while maintaining its London listing and UK tax residence.
Underdog Revenue More Than Doubles
In contrast with IG’s weaker quarter, Underdog delivered substantial growth.
The US business increased net revenue by more than 100% year-on-year to approximately $105 million.
Q4 Key for Underdog
IG noted that the fourth quarter is particularly important for Underdog.
In 2025, more than one-third of the company’s annual revenue was generated during the final three months of the year.
Acquisition Worth Up to $1.3 Billion
IG announced its agreement to acquire Underdog on 30 July.
The transaction carries an initial enterprise value of approximately $1.1 billion, with up to $200 million of additional consideration linked to performance.
Completion is expected in late 2026 or early 2027, subject to US regulatory approvals.
Shares Under Pressure
IG shares closed at 962p on 6 October.
That was approximately 44% below the closing price recorded on 30 July, immediately before the Underdog acquisition was announced.
The stock also fell sharply following IG’s 2 October trading update.
Prediction Markets as a Strategic Bet
Acquiring Underdog gives IG direct exposure to the US prediction markets sector.
The group has also highlighted the potential to use tastytrade’s infrastructure and its wider international platforms to create additional opportunities.
However, IG has not confirmed plans to launch prediction markets outside the United States.
European Regulation Remains Fragmented
The expansion of prediction markets comes as European regulators remain divided over how the products should be classified.
Some jurisdictions treat them as financial-market instruments, while others view them as betting products.
That lack of consensus could shape any international expansion of the Underdog model.
Next Steps or Impact
IG will host a dedicated virtual seminar for institutional investors and analysts on 8 October, focused entirely on Underdog.
The group will then provide additional details on trading and strategy on 22 October.
Underdog’s rapid growth increases the strategic importance of the acquisition at a time when IG is facing lower retention in its core business and a more moderate revenue outlook for 2026.
Editó: @fonta
