Prediction Markets Could Capture 21% of NFL Wagering in 2026
United States.- 8 October 2026 | www.zonadeazar.com Prediction markets could account for around 21% of all NFL-related wagering-equivalent activity during the 2026 season, establishing themselves as a meaningful new competitor to traditional US sportsbooks.
Eilers & Krejcik Gaming, EKG, estimates approximately $40 billion in combined activity across regulated sportsbooks and sports-event contracts.
$31.7 Billion for Sportsbooks
Regulated sportsbooks are still expected to dominate the market.
EKG forecasts approximately $31.7 billion in handle for the season.
That would represent around 79% of the combined total and growth of approximately 8% year-on-year.
$8.4 Billion for Prediction Markets
Sports-event contracts traded through prediction markets are projected to reach an equivalent of approximately $8.4 billion.
Under EKG’s methodology, that would give the sector around 21% of combined NFL wagering activity.
Different Metric From Traditional Handle
The comparison requires an important distinction.
Prediction markets operate as exchanges where contracts are bought and sold, meaning raw trading volume is not directly comparable with sportsbook handle.
EKG therefore uses a Handle Analog model to translate exchange activity into a sportsbook-comparable figure.
Proprietary Methodology
The detailed formula behind the conversion has not been publicly disclosed.
The 21% figure should therefore be understood as an estimate of equivalent activity rather than a direct measurement of the same form of handle reported by sportsbooks.
Access to States Without Commercial Sports Betting
One of prediction markets’ biggest competitive advantages is their reach into states where commercial sports betting remains restricted.
Sports contracts are available in major markets including:
- California.
- Texas.
- Georgia.
- Florida.
In Florida, Hard Rock Sportsbook retains online sports betting exclusivity under the Seminole Tribe framework.
Growing the Overall Market
Eilers & Krejcik Gaming Partner Emeritus Chris Grove believes prediction markets are currently expanding the overall wagering market rather than simply taking an equivalent share away from sportsbooks.
That is particularly relevant in jurisdictions without a traditional open sports betting market.
More Direct Competition by the Super Bowl
EKG nevertheless expects competition between the two models to intensify as the NFL season progresses.
The Super Bowl could provide one of the clearest early tests of whether event contracts begin substituting wagers that would previously have gone to traditional sportsbooks.
Football Contract Volume Surges
Football contract volume across selected exchanges reached approximately 2.94 billion contracts between 1 and 14 September.
That was almost four times the comparable level recorded in 2025.
Polymarket and Kalshi Drive App Downloads
Leading platforms also recorded strong user growth around the start of the season.
During NFL kickoff week:
- Polymarket recorded approximately 755,000 US app downloads.
- Kalshi reached around 602,000.
Robinhood and Coinbase were excluded from the comparison because their apps offer services beyond prediction markets.
Parlays Still Favour Sportsbooks
Traditional operators retain significant advantages in product depth and monetisation.
Parlays are expected to account for more than 40% of regulated NFL handle and potentially around 75% of sportsbook revenue because of their higher margins.
Prediction Markets Adopt Similar Products
Prediction platforms are already responding with combination contracts.
These products allow users to combine multiple outcomes within a single position and are becoming an increasingly important part of platforms such as Kalshi.
New Competitors Gain Ground
Growth is not limited to Polymarket and Kalshi.
Platforms including Novig and Underdog are also recording rapid increases in activity.
That suggests liquidity and customer demand are beginning to spread across a broader range of providers.
AGA Sees Competitive Pressure
The American Gaming Association forecasts approximately $29.5 billion in legal NFL handle through commercial sportsbooks alone.
The organisation argues that prediction-market growth is beginning to suppress conventional sports betting expansion.
Regulatory Conflict
The growth comes as authorities in around 20 states challenge sports contracts offered by platforms such as Kalshi, Polymarket and Robinhood.
States argue that the products function as sports wagering and should therefore be subject to gambling licences, taxes and local regulation.
Prediction-market companies maintain that the contracts are federally regulated financial products overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, CFTC.
Next Steps or Impact
The 2026 NFL season will provide the first large-scale test of how sportsbooks and prediction markets coexist.
EKG’s projected 21% share shows that sports-event contracts are no longer a peripheral product.
The key question will be how much of that growth represents genuinely new wagering activity and how much ultimately substitutes traditional sportsbook betting, an outcome that will depend both on consumer behaviour and ongoing regulatory disputes.
Editó: @fonta
