Kalshi Faces Potential CFTC Charges as Novig Loses in New York
United States – 12 November 2026 – www.zonadeazar.com The US prediction markets industry is facing renewed regulatory pressure following reports that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) could bring enforcement charges against Kalshi over alleged failures to notify the regulator about new contracts.
Meanwhile, a federal court in New York has rejected a request from Novig to prevent state authorities from enforcing their sports betting laws.
The developments, reported on 10 and 11 November 2026, intensify the debate surrounding federal and state oversight of prediction markets.
Kalshi Could Face CFTC Enforcement Charges
According to US reports, the CFTC has privately warned Kalshi that it could face enforcement action.
The investigation, which has reportedly been underway for several months, concerns whether the company properly complied with notification requirements when introducing new contracts.
The potential violations reportedly involve dozens of products submitted to the regulator.
However, no public charges have been announced, and the matter could still be resolved through a settlement.
Self-Certification Process Under Scrutiny
US regulations allow certain authorised exchanges to introduce new contracts through a self-certification process.
Under this framework, companies can list products without obtaining prior approval, provided they certify compliance with applicable legal requirements.
The investigation examines whether Kalshi followed the relevant administrative procedures.
Elisabeth Diana, a spokesperson for Kalshi, explained that the issue involved a procedural error concerning the submission of a limited number of contracts, many of which were never launched.
The company stated that it is already addressing the matter.
Novig Loses New York Court Battle
In a separate development, federal judge Colleen McMahon rejected Novig’s request for a preliminary injunction on 10 November.
The company had sought to prevent New York authorities from applying state gambling laws to its sports-related contracts.
However, the judge concluded that these products do not qualify as swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act and are therefore not automatically exempt from state gambling regulations.
The ruling allows New York to continue enforcing its licensing and supervisory requirements against Novig.
Court Challenges the CFTC’s Position
The decision also questioned the CFTC’s regulatory approach to sports-related event contracts.
McMahon noted that rules introduced by the agency in October failed to adequately explain the distinction between sports prediction contracts and traditional sportsbook wagers.
She also criticised an emergency order instructing Kalshi to continue operating in New York even if a state court ruled otherwise.
The judge rejected Novig’s argument that its peer-to-peer model fundamentally distinguishes it from conventional sports betting operators.
The court concluded that the platform could be required to comply with the same licensing obligations as other sports wagering businesses.
Congress Considers Additional Restrictions
The legal developments coincide with increasing congressional attention towards prediction markets.
Democratic Representative Ro Khanna has called for Congress to prohibit event contracts based on sporting outcomes.
According to the lawmaker, these products operate similarly to sports betting while potentially avoiding state and tribal regulatory safeguards.
Khanna also raised concerns about consumer protection, gambling addiction and the potential loss of state tax revenue.
His position adds to wider legislative discussions about the future oversight of prediction markets.
Polymarket Also Under Investigation
Kalshi is not the only prediction market platform facing regulatory scrutiny.
In June 2026, reports indicated that the CFTC was also investigating Polymarket, although the full scope of that investigation was not disclosed.
These investigations come as prediction market businesses expand their commercial offerings across sporting, economic and political events.
The sector’s growth has intensified disagreements between federal financial authorities and state gambling regulators.
Federal and State Regulatory Models in Dispute
The central issue is whether sports-related event contracts should be classified as financial derivatives or gambling products.
Prediction market platforms argue that their contracts can operate under CFTC supervision, while several state regulators maintain that these products fall within their gambling laws.
The ruling against Novig supports New York’s authority to apply its regulatory requirements.
However, the broader legal debate remains unresolved and further court proceedings may follow.
Industry Impact and Next Steps
The potential CFTC enforcement action against Kalshi and the adverse ruling against Novig highlight the regulatory challenges facing prediction markets in the United States.
For Kalshi, the next development will be whether the regulator files formal charges or resolves the matter through a settlement.
For Novig, the court’s decision means that New York authorities may continue requiring compliance with state sports betting legislation.
These developments underline the importance of establishing clear boundaries between federal financial regulation and state gambling authority, a central issue for the future of US prediction markets.
Editó: @fonta
