Offshore Share Nearly Triples Following Brazil iGaming Ban

Brazil.- 2 October 2026 | www.zonadeazar.com Early data following Brazil’s iGaming ban shows a sharp increase in offshore brand demand alongside a rapid decline in affiliate coverage linked to promoted operators.

According to Blask, offshore brands nearly tripled their share of measured iGaming demand within days of the prohibition, while affiliate coverage across the most promoted brands fell 41.5% in one week.

Offshore Share Reaches 9.9%

Between the launch of Brazil’s regulated market on 1 January 2025 and 24 September 2026, offshore brands accounted for an average 3.9% of iGaming demand measured by the Blask Index.

One day before the ban, the figure stood at 3.4%.

By 29 September, four days after publication of the new measure, it had reached 9.9%.

Highest Level Since Regulation Began

The 29 September figure represents the highest daily offshore share recorded since Brazil’s regulated market launched.

It marks a sharp shift from the previous environment, when licensed operators consistently represented more than 96% of total measured user interest.

What the Blask Index Measures

The figures should be interpreted as a measure of brand demand and visibility.

Blask uses digital and search signals to estimate player interest.

The metric does not directly represent wagering volume, active player numbers, gross gaming revenue or actual financial market share.

Affiliate Coverage Falls

The same shift is visible across the affiliate ecosystem.

The 20 most promoted brands had combined coverage across 715 affiliate websites one week earlier.

By 29 September, that figure had fallen to 418 sites.

This represents a 41.5% decline.

All Leading Brands Lost Coverage

All 20 brands in the monitored group recorded reduced affiliate presence.

Bet365 experienced the largest decline, falling from 60 to 31 affiliate sites.

Brazino777, Novibet and Sportingbet also recorded significant reductions.

Stake Becomes Most Promoted

Stake became the most widely promoted brand among the affiliate sites analysed.

However, its coverage also declined, from 51 to 38 sites.

Betano, Brazil’s leading brand by measured user demand, appeared on 33 affiliate sites, down by 15 week-on-week.

Affiliate Restrictions

Brazil’s prohibition does not apply solely to operators.

The measure also covers intermediation and advertising activities, directly affecting affiliates, specialist media and influencers promoting betting and iGaming operators.

Affiliate links, sponsored posts and promotional codes are covered by the new restrictions.

Pressure on Brazil-Dependent Affiliates

Smart Social CEO Luiz Felippe Correia de Almeida said affiliates heavily dependent on the Brazilian market face the greatest pressure.

Diversification into other geographical markets is one potential response.

Continuing to target Brazilian users through alternative promotional channels could expose businesses to financial penalties.

Regulated Ecosystem Shrinks

Some licensed sites remain temporarily available to facilitate customer withdrawals, but the commercial ecosystem surrounding them is already contracting.

The fall in affiliate coverage is one of the earliest visible indicators of that decline.

Offshore Migration Risk

The rise in Blask’s offshore share reinforces industry warnings over potential migration towards unlicensed operators.

Removing regulated supply does not necessarily mean consumer interest in betting and online casino disappears immediately.

However, it remains too early to determine the prohibition’s long-term effect on wagering behaviour, volume and channelisation.

Regulatory Context

Provisional Measure 1,394/2026 prohibits the operation, offering, intermediation and advertising of fixed-odds betting in Brazil.

The market is currently in a transition period while Congress considers the measure and operators and trade bodies challenge different elements of the framework.

Next Steps or Impact

Future data will show whether offshore demand continues to increase once regulated platforms fully leave the market.

Affiliate coverage will also provide an important indicator of how quickly the commercial infrastructure of the former regulated market is disappearing.

For now, the early figures point to a rapid reduction in affiliate activity and a sharp relative increase in offshore brand interest.

Editó: @fonta