Genius Sports Sees Prediction Markets Remaining a Lasting Force

United States.- 16 September 2026 | www.zonadeazar.com Genius Sports Co-Founder and CEO Mark Locke believes sports prediction markets are here to stay in the United States, although he expects their current structure to change significantly as the regulatory environment develops.

For Locke, the debate should not be reduced to whether today’s platforms ultimately win or lose their legal battles.

The more durable factor is underlying consumer demand to take positions on sporting outcomes.

He expects that demand to continue even if rules, taxation, access models and the companies controlling the activity all change.

Demand Is More Durable Than Today’s Model

Genius Sports’ central argument is that prediction markets did not create consumer interest in sports wagering.

They simply introduced another channel through which that demand can be expressed.

Regulation may change the route by which customers reach the product, but Locke does not believe it will remove the underlying appetite.

Today’s Structure Is Unlikely to Survive Unchanged

Locke does not expect prediction markets to retain every current advantage indefinitely.

Potential changes could affect:

• State access.
• Taxation.
• Product rules.
• Consumer safeguards.
• Reporting.
• Settlement standards.
• Integrity oversight.

The eventual framework may include both federal and state elements.

State Authorities vs the CFTC

The sector remains at the centre of a jurisdictional conflict.

Kalshi, Polymarket and other platforms argue that contracts listed on CFTC-registered exchanges fall under federal commodities law.

Several state regulators and Attorneys General argue that sports event contracts function as gambling and should comply with state betting law.

Supreme Court Could Become Decisive

Diverging federal court decisions make a Supreme Court ruling increasingly important.

Locke believes a substantive victory for prediction-market operators could clarify which laws apply to sports contracts offered through CFTC-regulated exchanges.

Even that, however, would not answer every regulatory question.

Product Rules and Taxes Would Remain Open

A jurisdictional ruling would not automatically establish:

• Tax rates.
• Player-protection requirements.
• Product restrictions.
• Surveillance standards.
• Reporting obligations.
• Settlement procedures.

The CFTC is already developing a more detailed event-contract framework.

Genius Operates Across Both Models

Genius Sports is positioned differently from businesses dependent on a single wagering format.

It currently supplies infrastructure and services to:

• Traditional sportsbooks.
• Prediction-market exchanges.
• Market makers.
• Customer-acquisition platforms.

Its partners and customers include DraftKings, FanDuel, Kalshi and Polymarket.

Official Data, Settlement and Integrity

Genius supplies official sports data alongside settlement and integrity services.

This creates a potentially important role as regulators demand greater certainty around the information used to settle sports contracts.

Settlement Becomes Critical

Locke distinguishes pricing from settlement.

A market maker can build a price from public information and proprietary models.

Settlement is different because it establishes definitively what happened and determines who gets paid.

That requires a more authoritative data standard.

Official Data May Become More Valuable

Higher regulatory standards could therefore increase the importance of league-approved official data.

Live markets and player-specific contracts are particularly sensitive to:

• Latency.
• Officiating changes.
• Statistical corrections.
• Privileged information.
• Post-event decisions.

Genius believes its relationships with sports organisations provide an advantage in this environment.

Market Makers Create Another Customer Base

Prediction exchanges operate differently from sportsbooks.

Market makers rather than the exchange itself can provide much of the pricing and liquidity.

Those firms require:

• Sports data.
• Pricing.
• Risk tools.
• Technology infrastructure.

Genius sees this as a separate and growing customer category.

New Demand in States Without Online Sportsbooks

Locke cited estimates suggesting that a significant proportion of Kalshi’s retail demand comes from states without legal online sportsbooks.

That would indicate prediction markets are creating new regulated activity rather than simply taking existing volume from sportsbooks.

Genius also notes that these figures are modelled estimates and some users may previously have wagered offshore.

Competition for the Same Sports Customer

Kalshi, Polymarket, DraftKings, FanDuel and others are increasingly competing for overlapping audiences.

For Genius, more well-funded businesses pursuing the same customer can increase demand for:

• Data.
• Differentiated products.
• Marketing technology.
• Customer acquisition.
• Audience intelligence.

Through Legend and its broader media operations, Genius also participates in that part of the ecosystem.

Regulation May Redirect Activity

If prediction-market access narrows, some sports wagering activity may return to regulated sportsbooks already supplied by Genius.

If customers remain on exchanges, Genius can continue serving those platforms and their market makers.

That infrastructure-neutral position is central to Locke’s argument.

Taxation Is Starting to Evolve

Locke expects prediction-market liquidity ultimately to be captured within a tax framework.

Some states have already begun establishing specific approaches.

The final model could involve state taxation, federal regulation or a combination of both.

Greater Scrutiny Across the Ecosystem

Recent state enforcement has expanded beyond prediction-market operators themselves.

Data providers, payment companies, media businesses and other associated firms are increasingly receiving regulatory information requests.

Genius says it will continue to engage with regulators as the framework develops.

Industry Context

Prediction markets have become one of the largest structural challenges to the US sports-betting model.

Traditional sports wagering developed through state licensing following the repeal of PASPA, while sports event contracts seek to operate through the federal CFTC framework.

The outcome has implications for taxation, consumer protection, sporting integrity and competition.

For Genius Sports, however, the decisive factor is that consumer demand to trade or wager around sporting outcomes will remain regardless of the eventual regulatory architecture.

Next Steps and Impact

Mark Locke expects today’s prediction-market structure to evolve but does not expect the demand behind its growth to disappear.

The Supreme Court, CFTC and state regulators will all play important roles in determining the eventual structure.

Genius Sports intends to remain largely neutral regarding which channel ultimately dominates.

The company already supplies official data, settlement and integrity services to exchanges and sportsbooks, sells pricing and risk products to market makers and participates in customer acquisition through its media operations.

For Genius, regulation may determine who pays for that infrastructure, but not necessarily whether demand for it exists.

Prediction markets may therefore reshape US sports wagering without diminishing the importance of official sports-data suppliers. If anything, tighter settlement and integrity standards could make that infrastructure more valuable.

Editó: @fonta