Gibraltar Launches Dedicated Prediction Markets Framework

Gibraltar.- 14 July 2026 www.zonadeazar.com Gibraltar has introduced a dedicated regulatory regime for prediction markets, becoming the first licensing jurisdiction to recognise the activity as a standalone category. The framework forms part of the new Gibraltar Gambling Act 2025 and adopts an activity-based and risk-based regulatory approach.

News Details

The regulations address risks involving market integrity, participant protection, financial crime prevention, Gibraltar’s reputation, governance, operational resilience and objective contract settlement. They also recognise the role prediction markets can play in aggregating information and supporting price discovery.

Every event contract must be approved and certified by the Gambling Authority. Contracts must be clear, capable of objective settlement, not readily susceptible to manipulation and consistent with the wider regulatory objectives.

Operators must maintain systems designed to prevent market manipulation, insider dealing and misuse of confidential information. The authority will retain discretion to restrict or prohibit contracts considered inappropriate or contrary to the public interest, including those involving criminal conduct, death, serious injury, terrorism, war or armed conflict.

Industry Context

The legislation establishes prediction market activity as a distinct statutory category with its own authorisation, operational requirements and supervisory framework. ADI PredictStreet has already received a licence under the previous regime, while WagerWire is on course to become Gibraltar’s second authorised prediction market operator.

The launch comes amid an international debate over whether prediction markets should be treated as gambling, financial instruments or a separate product category. Gibraltar’s framework introduces safeguards covering conflicts of interest, client asset protection, anti-money laundering, sanctions compliance, financial resources and orderly wind-down planning.

Statements

Minister for Justice, Trade and Industry Nigel Feetham said:

“This framework is the product of extensive engagement with industry professionals, prospective operators and investors over recent months. It reflects Gibraltar’s collaborative approach to regulation and demonstrates that innovation and robust regulatory standards can go hand in hand.”

He also stated:

“Today, we have delivered on that commitment with the publication of a bespoke regulatory regime for prediction markets, the first dedicated framework of its kind anywhere in the world.”

Next Steps or Impact

An independent supervisory panel has been established to oversee implementation. Gibraltar expects further applications from international businesses and aims to position its framework as a model for jurisdictions that have not yet determined how prediction markets should be regulated.

Edited by: @_fonta