Prediction Markets Could Reach u$s 1 Trillion by 2030
Latin America.- June 30, 2026 www.zonadeazar.com Prediction markets are projected to grow rapidly, while Latin America intensifies the regulatory debate over their legal classification.
Overview
Prediction markets could reach USD 1 trillion in activity by 2030, driven by the growth of platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi.
News Details
According to an analysis by Bloomberg Intelligence, the industry is projected to reach USD 300 billion in traded volume in 2026, compared to an estimated USD 51 billion in 2025.
The sector’s expansion has opened a key debate: whether these platforms should be considered market instruments or whether, due to their operation, they resemble online betting products.
Industry Context
Across Latin America, several countries have begun reviewing the regulatory impact of these products. Colombia requested the blocking of Polymarket, while Brazil and Argentina are discussing which authorities should supervise this type of activity.
In Brazil, authorities intervened against platforms after considering that certain contracts operated similarly to sports betting. In Argentina, LOTBA launched an investigation into Polymarket, identifying similarities with already regulated betting verticals.
Statements
André Gelfi, director, advisor and co-founder of the Brazilian Institute of Responsible Gaming (IBJR), said the international trend is not to ban innovation, but to seek regulatory consistency.
Polymarket stated that its peer-to-peer event contracts are different from sportsbooks or casinos, adding that the company is willing to collaborate with each jurisdiction to promote responsible innovation.
Next Steps or Impact
The rise of prediction markets could become one of the main regulatory debates in Latin American iGaming over the coming years.
The discussion will focus on licensing, anti-money laundering requirements, user identification, responsible gambling, taxation and competition with regulated operators.
Edited by: @_fonta
