Kalshi Records US$223 Million in US Midterm Election Markets
United States.- 22 October 2026 | www.zonadeazar.com Kalshi, the US prediction market exchange regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), is reporting substantial trading activity ahead of the country’s 3 November 2026 midterm elections.
According to figures published by the company on 21 October, contracts covering the Senate, House of Representatives and gubernatorial elections have generated approximately US$223 million in trading volume.
The platform enables participants to trade contracts linked to electoral outcomes, with market indicators updating as transactions take place.
Congressional Control Markets
Kalshi’s election dashboard includes contracts addressing which political party will control each chamber of Congress.
As of 21 October, published contract prices reflected the following implied probabilities:
- House of Representatives: 91% for the Democratic Party and 9% for the Republican Party.
- Senate: 66% for the Democratic Party and approximately 35% for the Republican Party.
These figures represent traded contract prices rather than election results or voting intention percentages.
Prices may change before election day in response to new polling information, political developments and market activity.
State-Level Markets and Individual Races
Alongside congressional control contracts, Kalshi offers markets covering election results in individual states.
Several Senate contests are featured prominently on its platform, including:
- Texas: James Talarico and Ken Paxton.
- Maine: Troy Jackson and Susan Collins.
- Michigan: Abdul El-Sayed and Mike Rogers.
- Ohio: Sherrod Brown and Jon Husted.
- Iowa: Josh Turek and Ashley Hinson.
Users can examine contract prices, historical movements and market-derived estimates for individual races.
The website also covers the 435 House seats and 36 gubernatorial elections scheduled for 2026.
More Than 160 Additional Election Markets
Kalshi supplements its principal contracts with markets covering various aspects of the electoral process.
According to the platform, 161 additional US election markets are available beyond the main Senate, House and governor categories.
Key features include:
- State-by-state probability comparisons.
- Historical contract price tracking.
- Interactive electoral maps.
- Trading volume information.
- Contracts linked to the balance of legislative power.
One of the most actively traded contracts concerns the number of Senate seats the Democratic Party will hold after the midterms, with approximately US$5.9 million in trading volume.
Regulation and Contract Mechanics
Kalshi operates as a CFTC-regulated event contracts exchange.
In binary markets, participants trade contracts whose settlement value depends on whether a specified outcome occurs.
Contract prices provide a measure of implied probability, although they do not guarantee an electoral result.
The wider industry continues to face regulatory debate in the United States, particularly concerning the boundaries between financial prediction markets and traditional betting.
Next Steps and Industry Impact
With the 3 November elections approaching, electoral contracts remain an important category within Kalshi’s market offering.
The platform will continue updating prices as participants trade and new information becomes available.
For the prediction markets industry, the 2026 elections provide an opportunity to examine liquidity, price transparency and the use of financial contracts linked to political events.
Editó: @fonta
