Polymarket Puts Fed Hold at 84% and Bitcoin $90K Odds at 40%
United States.- 13 October 2026 | www.zonadeazar.com Polymarket prediction markets are showing a strong expectation that the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged at its 28 October meeting, while traders also position ahead of September inflation data and further moves in Bitcoin.
As of 12 October, the market assigned an 84% probability to a Fed hold and a 40% probability that Bitcoin reaches $90,000 during October.
Fed Hold Leads at 84%
The main October Fed market had accumulated approximately $32.1 million in trading volume.
Implied probabilities stood at:
- No change: 84%.
- 25-basis-point increase: 17%.
- Rate cut: 1%.
These percentages represent prices set by market participants rather than an official Federal Reserve forecast.
Hike Expectations Have Fallen
Expectations for another rate increase have weakened sharply in recent weeks.
At the end of September, markets had still assigned a much higher probability to a second consecutive hike, but subsequent labour data shifted that expectation towards December.
CPI Is the Next Catalyst
Immediate attention is now focused on the September inflation report scheduled for 14 October.
The broader economic consensus is around 3.6% year-on-year inflation.
Polymarket Split Between 3.6% and 3.7%
A dedicated CPI market was almost evenly divided between two outcomes:
- 3.7%: 44%.
- 3.6%: 43%.
The market assigned significantly lower odds to inflation of 3.8% or above.
Key Signal for the Fed
A hotter-than-expected inflation reading could reshape expectations for monetary policy.
However, as of 12 October, traders still considered a hold by far the most likely outcome.
Bitcoin $90,000 Odds Rise
Crypto prediction markets also showed a rise in bullish sentiment.
The probability of Bitcoin reaching $90,000 at some point during October increased from 33% to 40% in roughly 24 hours.
BTC Near $84,000
Bitcoin was trading around $84,000 at the time of the snapshot.
Reaching $90,000 during October would require a gain of roughly 7% from those levels.
Other Bitcoin Levels Also Move
Other Bitcoin markets also saw significant repricing:
- Probability of reaching $87,500: 59%.
- Probability of falling to $80,000: 52%.
This shows traders continued to assign meaningful probabilities to both upside and downside scenarios.
Ethereum Also Moves Higher
Ethereum prediction markets also saw sharp changes.
The probability of reaching $2,600 during October rose to around 90%.
At the same time, the odds of falling to $2,400 declined.
Probabilities, Not Guaranteed Forecasts
Polymarket percentages are market prices generated by buyers and sellers.
They are not official predictions or guarantees of the final outcome for the Fed, inflation or Bitcoin.
Prediction Markets as Macro Indicators
The activity highlights how prediction markets are expanding beyond elections and sport.
Central-bank decisions, inflation and asset prices have become increasingly active categories.
Next Steps or Impact
The 14 October CPI release will be the next major catalyst for Fed probabilities.
A reading materially above the 3.6%-3.7% range could revive expectations for a rate increase.
In crypto, Bitcoin will need to sustain recent momentum to approach the $90,000 threshold.
For now, Polymarket is sending a clear signal: traders see a Fed pause as much more likely than another hike, while assigning a moderate chance to Bitcoin touching $90,000 before the end of October.
Editó: @fonta
